Americans Optimistic About Their Longevity - Brief Article

USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), May, 2000

On average, Americans estimate they will live about one year longer than statistics of life expectancy suggest they will, according to a study by John Mirowsky, professor of sociology, Ohio State University, Columbus. Men and blacks are most optimistic about their lifespans, he found. Men believe they will live about three years longer than official predictions, and blacks expect to live about six years longer. The group that statistics say should live the longest--white females--actually predicted they will live slightly less than official estimates.

The survey results showed that white women and black males and females expect to live to around 82 years on average, and white males expect to live to 81. However, Census Bureau statistics suggest that white women should expect to live to about 83; black women and white men to 78; and black males to 71.5.

An interesting finding was that younger individuals did not adjust their life expectancies upward to account for the fact that mortality rates continue to drop. Therefore, they should expect to live longer than their parents and grandparents, but this was not reflected in their life expectancy estimates.

Although the findings suggest people have a generally good idea of their estimated lifespan, Mirowsky says he could not determine how they came up with their estimates. Specifically, he could find no explanation for the relative optimism of blacks and men about their life expectancies. One possibility he investigated was that these groups might report better health than others and so be more optimistic about their future life. Yet, perceived good health and a variety of other health- and status-related factors accounted for just a small portion of black and male respondents' optimism.

Mirowsky indicates that studies like this are important as more Americans are expected to manage their own economic future after retirement. "At one time, most people worked for big companies that had a retirement plan and professionals to determine how much money employees needed after they retired. But increasingly, employers have shifted away from that toward individually managed retirement savings accounts. If people are going to manage their own retirements, one of the questions is whether they have a good idea of how long they are going to live."

Because most people have a slightly optimistic view of their life expectancy, it may be that they will save more and retire later, which would make good economic sense, he suggests. However, it is not yet known if they will act on these life expectancy beliefs and plan accordingly.