Forecasting Elder Care Trends for the 21st Century - Brief Article

USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), August, 2000

Medicaid will be gutted before reasonable alternatives can be found by Federal and state governments. American workers will opt for long-term care benefits in lieu of pay raises. More businesswomen moving into leadership positions means a greater shortage of elder-caregivers. One in nine baby boomers will live at least 90 years. Those 85 years old and over will triple in number by 2020. These and other prognostications come from the 21st Century Eldercare Trends report created by SCAN, a managed care plan for seniors that could be the model for solving many of the health care challenges facing the country in the next 50 years.

The SCAN report details 12 major trends in elder care. With the aid of demographic projections and survey analysis, the report conceptualizes the future of elder care in America. For example, the need for caregivers has fostered a trend to telecommuting. The percentage of companies with telecommuting rose steadily during the 1990s and will continue as the population ages.

"Health care maintenance in this country must undergo a dramatic overhaul if we are to care for the 13,000,000 people who will need caregiver assistance by the year 2020," warns Sam L. Ervin, president and chief executive officer of SCAN. "While the White House and Congressional leaders have promised Medicare reform this year, it appears that the future of health care in this country will merely be a subject used to fuel campaign rhetoric leading to the 2000 elections."

The result, he contends, is likely to be a shallow agreement based on partisan politics. "The big picture will be missed unless our leaders in Washington face cold facts and look at where we are heading."

The median age of Americans has been steadily rising since 1970. The Census Bureau projects that the over-65 population will more than double between 2000 and 2050. In 1900, one American in 25 was 65 or over; in 1984, one in nine. The Census Bureau predicts that, by 2050, one in five Americans will be 65 or over, with the proportion of "oldest-old," those 85 and over, growing even more rapidly--tripling in size by 2020.

One of the biggest questions is who will care for the aging population as more and more women, the primary caregivers, move into leadership roles in the public and private sectors. "The government has a serious reason to help families keep aged relatives living independently as long as possible, since the other alternative--nursing home care--represents a significant drain on Medicaid funds," Ervin suggests.

Perhaps an even bigger concern will be financing long-term care among the more than 76,000,000 baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964. "Boomers represent 76,000,000 eligible voters," he points out. "They must use their influence to ensure that quality health care services and programs are available for their parents now, not to mention for themselves."

The SCAN report also sees technology playing a major role in a reformed health care system, as "cyberseniors" are aided by personal computers to prolong independent living. "Elder-friendly technology will significantly improve access to resources and information to assist those who are frail and vulnerable and will help to reduce isolation among those living in rural or hard-to-reach areas of the country.

"The increased use of personal computers will be a key factor in helping cyberseniors to remain living independently, as it will enhance their ability to communicate and obtain valuable health care information," Ervin emphasizes. "Technology will also allow health care providers to better monitor their patients."

The report predicts that the sandwich generation--those caught between raising children and taking care of aging parents--will have to learn lessons from human resource professionals to ensure that the right health care providers are hired for private use. "Caregivers will be forced to make decisions on whom to hire and from which organization or firm, much as human resource professionals do on a daily basis. Employers, working in concert with their human resource departments, will set up training sessions for employee caregivers."