Senators' approval ratings unpredictable - Polls

USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), August, 2003

Although elected officials may attempt to influence public approval ratings as they look toward reelection, their own tactical maneuvers do not have as much effect as factors beyond their control, a recent study points out. Demographics such as their state's economic performance and size, their own number of years in the Senate, presidential popularity, and the popularity of the other senator from the state have a greater impact on their approval ratings than such things as bill sponsorship and media activity, according to the findings of political scientists Wendy Schiller of Brown University, Providence, R.I., Brian F. Schaffner of Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, and Patrick J. Sellers of Davidson (N.C.) College.

"Senators clearly want to maximize the likelihood that they are reelected, so they seek to build favorable impressions with constituents. Senators' efforts pay off to some extent, but the contextual factors beyond their control tend to exert more influence," note the researchers.

They examined 552 senatorial approval ratings from 1981 to 1997, taken from the U.S. Official Job Approval Ratings website, which captures surveys by commercial, media, and university organizations. The analysis included information on nearly 60% of all individuals serving in the Senate during the 16-year period.

The tactics that are within the control of legislators include introducing legislation; position taking (roll call voting offers the most prominent type); and news coverage. The factors beyond legislators' control are home-state population; home-state economic performance; seniority; popularity or unpopularity of a president; and actions of the other senator in the state's delegation.

Of the three tactics for boosting home-state support, press activity exerted the strongest influence, maintain the authors. Media coverage in national and local outlets can distribute information to more constituents than sending newsletters or meeting them individually. Other significant influences on home-state approval lay less directly within a senator's control. Among the most notable links was that between state population and approval ratings. Larger states tend to be more heterogeneous and thus more difficult to represent. Additionally, the state's economy had a bearing on approval ratings. Senators from states with weak or no growth may receive blame for the unfavorable economic trends, the authors indicate.

Seniority in the Senate proved a factor as well. With multiple years of service, legislators have more opportunities to help constituents and build favorable name recognition. A state electorate's evaluation of the nation's president appeared linked to the senators' ratings, particularly if the president is from the same party. In contrast, approval ratings of senators not in the president's party are not influenced as heavily by the president's approval rating.

The findings also suggest a relationship between a senator's approval rating and the other senator in the delegation. Two senators representing a state often develop different policy portfolios, each in hopes of creating a distinct reputation in the eyes of the constituents.