Storm clouds gathering over Russia

USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), August, 2005

A vast majority of elites in Europe and the U.S. are concerned about Russia's retreat from democracy, according to a survey released by Germany's Aspen Institute Berlin.

Those surveyed agree that growing authoritarianism in the country, as illustrated by, among other things, the prosecution of former Yukos Oil Company CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky, is "problematic for the West." However, the survey found less agreement among key thought leaders as to what specific policy measures should be employed by the West, or what impact the retreat will have on Russia's investment climate.

Respondents included representatives of key government ministries, those who influence policy in the think tank and nongovernmental organizations community, members of the news media, and institutional investors. "Influential audiences in the West are taking developments in Russia seriously," notes Jeffrey Gedmin, director of the Aspen Institute. "They see the deterioration of the rule of law and Russian interference with their neighboring states, and they strongly believe that these kinds of trends have a negative impact on the West."

Key findings include:

* 56% in the U.S. and Eastern Europe believe Russia is trending less democratic, while 46% in Western Europe see this negative inclination.

* Over 90% in each region believe that the status of Russian democracy is important for Western interests.

* Majorities in all three regions embrace the notion that a reversal of democratic reforms in Russia is likely to produce policies that are opposed to Western interests.

* Between 80-90% in all three regions believe that growing authoritarianism is causing concern and instability in the area.

* Similar majorities (75-85%) call for holding Russia accountable for its interference in neighboring states. These very same majorities want the West to condition its relationship with Russia on a commitment by Moscow's leaders to democratic reform.

* Support for specific punitive measures is low--bare majorities are in favor of sanctions for Russian conduct in Chechnya. Denying Russia membership in the World Trade Organization and suspending it from G8 meetings both fail to attract majority support.

* Some 59% in the U.S. have an unfavorable view of Russia as a place to make investments; 41% take that position in Western Europe; and 26% in Eastern Europe.