Black support may end up hurting Obama

USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), July, 2008

The enthusiastic turnout of African-American voters on behalf of Sen. Barack Obama (D.-III.) in the presidential primaries and caucuses could backfire, leading to defections from some white supporters, maintains Kerry Haynie, associate professor of political science at Duke University, Durham, N.C.

"I think these patterns are legitimate issues to raise in the campaign, as the Clinton camp [had] subtly and not so subtly done. They speak to the issues of his viability and electability," asserts Haynie, who is co-director of the Center for the Study of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender in the Social Sciences as well as co-editor of New Race Politics in America, Understanding Minority and Immigrant Politics.

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He contends that two historical patterns illustrate how and why race matters in the 2008 presidential election. He says the more African-American backing Obama receives, the greater the risk of his losing white supporters. Haynie cites research showing that whites, especially those with low incomes, often are less likely to vote for a Democratic candidate if he or she is identified with black voters. Poll numbers indicate that this year's Mississippi and Ohio primaries are examples of this pattern. Secondly, researchers have found that, in black-white electoral contests, pre-election polls tend to overestimate white voter support for black candidates. This pattern could suggest that current polling data inflates the true support that Obama has among whites.

"For a number of reasons, some white voters indicate support for black candidates in polls and surveys, but don't follow through at the ballot box," Haynie confirms. He points to the campaign of former Virginia Gov. Douglas Wilder. "The polls estimated Wilder's lead to be between four and 11 percentage points. When the actual votes were counted, however, Wilder won by just six-tenths of a percentage point."