What does the future hold for the Russian military?

USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), July, 1993 by James A. Nathan

Much of the former Soviet army remains armed and desperate, without a role in the post-Cold War climate.

The Russian General Staff has taken a sudden interest in human rights, complaining of the "apartheid-like" treatment accorded the Russian-speaking civilians and soliders in the newly independent Baltic states - Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. More than a year after the Baltic states proclaimed their independence, they find themselves still occupied and under threat by the Russian military. Since they were annexed a half-century ago, several million Russians have come to live in the Baltics and some 130,000 Russian soldiers still are billeted there. A draft statement of Russia's military doctrine warns that the "violation of civil rights . . . of persons identifying themselves ethnically and culturally with Russia in the former Soviet republics may become a serious source of conflict." In case of disturbances in the Baltics, Russian generals have issued orders to shoot to kill.

This interest of the Russian military in "the nationality problem" is a terrifying echo of the Serbian Army's claim that it had the "obligation" to protect the "rights" of Serbian minorities in Bosnia and Croatia, or anywhere else in what was then Yugoslavia. Everywhere in the former Soviet Union - from Lithuania to Siberia, and Estonia to Kyrgizia - Russians are a sizable minority. The Russian military's new doctrine is but a prescription for a reassertion of Russian imperialism and an excuse for claiming resources. The Yeltsin government can wheedle, cajole, and promise, but unless the concept of free markets and democracy yields something tangible for the forlorn pensioners and workers of the former Soviet Union, his support could evaporate in a puff of failed expectations. An army's commitment to firm leadership then would become as welcome as a desert rain. Isvestia reported on July 27, 1992, the troubling statistic that two-thirds of all Muscovites polled are "nostalgic" for the old U.S.S.R.

As in Yugoslavia, ethnic animus and militarism threaten the ruin of the feeble Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The Russian parliament has threatened Estonia for violating the rights of ethnic Russians. The feud between Ukraine and the Russian Republic, however, holds perhaps the most potential for explosive repercussions since both sides are so well armed. Ukrainians - with the third largest army in Europe - resent the "imperialist" attitude of Russians, while most Russians refuse to see Ukraine, or its capital, Kiev, as "abroad." Some Russian generals are worried that Ukrainian forces have retained some short-ranged nuclear weapons. One special irritant - the nuclear-armed, 300-ship Black Sea fleet - has been palliated by "dividing" the fleet between Ukraine and Russia until 1995, a solution with all the vices of Solomon's suggestion to contending claimants of a new-born child.

Nobody knows what will happen to this great chunk of the former Soviet navy two years hence. Nevertheless, it is hard to believe that the Russian General Staff easily will relinquish some of the best part of its blue-water fleet. In addition, the Crimea is in dispute between Russia and Ukraine. As a result, Ukrainian officials have broached NATO for territorial guarantees, while Russian officials have made it clear that an alliance of former republics with NATO would have the most dire consequences.

An ethnic witches' brew

The former Soviet empire doesn't make ethnic sense. There are 120 nationalities in the CIS, and an endless number of ethnic groups live in pocket-sized cantons. Sixty million people in the territories of the former Soviet Union reside outside of their own "allotted" national space. In most regions, there are not even recognized borders. The strife inherent in this ethnic witches' brew largely had been suppressed during 70 years of communism. Now, regions within regions are claiming sovereignty. Even cities are declaring their independence within regions, if there happens to be a particular financial interest (say, an oil field or diamond mine) nearby.

Researchers at the Russian Institute of Georgraphy recently looked at potential conflicts resulting from the Swiss cheeselike dispersion of ethnic nationalities in the former Soviet empire and found more than 180 actual and potential flashpoints. If the "rights" of Russians are abridged (as surely they will be somewhere across the 11 time zones that comprised the former Soviet Union), the defense of Russians and their "rights" could give the Red Army the mission, money, and authority it now craves, but lacks.

All the elements holding the former Soviet Union together have disappeared - save the army. The Communist Party is outlawed and disgraced. The KGB no longer is in the business of instilling fear, and, instead, has moved toward steadfast commercialism - becoming the new stockholders, managers, and wholesalers.

Much of the former Soviet army, however, remains intact - armed and desperate. At least 3,000,000 strong, employing 11,000,000 people, and impacting some 40,000,000 lives directly, the Red Army once was called the 16th Republic - the third largest in the so-called Commonwealth of Independent States, after Russia and the Ukraine.