Ethnic conflict threatens international stability - Column

USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), July, 1993 by Llewellyn D. Howell

As Pres. Clinton explored American options in the ethnic war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, it was clear that policymakers in the U.S. and Europe were well aware of the fact that a precedent could be set that would restructure the relationship between governments and nations. Virtually any action in Bosnia would challenge the concept of the modern nation-state and could result in efforts to reorganize the state or its relationship with territory worldwide. This threat to the global state system is of considerably more importance than the possibility that Bosnia could turn into another Vietnam. Depending on the outcome of this triangular conflict among Serbs, Croats, and Muslims, numerous other ethnic conflicts easily could evolve into equivalent quagmires.

Some years ago, Time magazine did an informal study of war frequency and found that, at any given time, there were approximately 20 conflicts under way. In a Feb. 7, 1993, New York Times' analysis by David Binder and Barbara Crossette, 48 current instances of what may be called "war" (two organized sides conflicting with casualties resulting) were cited. Many have been a consequence of the demise of communist ideology and associated state structures. Some were suppressed in the context of the Cold War, where international side-taking took precedence over more proximate rivalries. Others have been smoldering or even actively burning for years, decades, or centuries without recognition from the Western state-oriented media. Nevertheless, within political states, these are nations in conflict. Here are some examples from the Binder-Crossette file that could become future Bosnias:

Sri Lanka lost a president in early May in what was thought to be an ethnically related assassination by suicide bomber. Both Tamil separatists and Sinhalese nationalist militants have been fighting against government forces. More than 75,000 have died in the two conflicts. No end is in sight on either count. Reports of atrocities have been widespread for years. India already has intervened in Sri Lanka to attempt a solution in the long-standing separatist conflict between Tamils and Sinhalese. It failed. Reestablishment of political, as distinct from national, sovereignty is unlikely without "ethnic cleansing."

In Peru, a Maoist guerrilla group has been waging a war against the government since 1980. The Shining Path guerrillas draw their support primarily from Indian and mixed-race groups in opposition to a largely Hispanic elite. More than 25,000 have died and 500,000 have become refugees, a scale reminiscent of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Despite the ideological overtones, the conflict is essentially racial.

The Liberian civil war is really an ethnic one. Pres. Samuel K. Doe, the political leader of the Krahn ethnic group, was killed in 1990. While a West African-supported interim government rules in the capital of Monrovia, most of the country is controlled by a guerrilla group that represents the Gio and Mano ethnic populations. At least 20,000 have died in the ongoing conflict, and many thousands more have been set adrift.

India is the site of a 4,500-year-old civilization. Its ethnic and religious conflicts date back to origins that may be nearly 1,000 years in the past. Yet, solutions have not come. While the Hindu-Muslim fighting in such places as Kashmir (5,000 killed) are well known, other elements of the ethnic conflict are less so. A Sikh rebellion in the Punjab has led to the deaths of nearly 20,000. Two hundred have been reported killed in Assam in northeast India and another 300 in Nagaland. Both rebellions can be described as tribal.

The Sudan contains one of the most classic ethnic wars, between Arab Muslims from the north, who dominate the government and its military forces, and black Christians and animists from the south. Many thousands have been killed, and it is estimated that millions have been displaced. No end is in sight here either.

The Middle East remains a hotbed of ethnic conflict. Much attention is focused on Israel, where more than 1,500 have died in the Intifadeh eruption. Meanwhile, war with Kurdish populations in Turkey, Iraq, and Iran have left many thousands more dead, and the rate of fatalities continues to exceed that in Israel and Lebanon.

In Europe, Croatia contains the same potential for conflict as does Bosnia. The parties are the same: Croats, Serbs, Muslims. An estimated 25,000 have been killed since 1991. In Georgia, two separatist movements are representative of two distinct Muslim demands for political reconfiguration, one in Abkhazia, seeking independence or union with Russia, and another in Southern Ossetia, seeking union with the autonomous Russian republic of Northern Ossetia. Estimates are that 1,000 have been killed and 80,000 displaced. Other ethnic conflicts, with numerous deaths reported, exist in Moldova, Russia itself, Romania, Germany, Britain, and Spain. The European conflicts represent a special difficulty for an American president where interest groups within the U.S. press for focused considerations. Should the U.S. intervene in Bosnia and then refuse in the Sudan or Guatemala, charges of racism will be sure to follow.