Desert Storm II: is a new Persian Gulf War on the horizon?

USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), Sept, 1994 by David Isenberg

The Pentagon reportedly is planning to deploy Air Force tactical squadrons to the Persian Gulf for the three months each year that a carrier is not forward-deployed in the Indian Ocean. According to the General Accounting Office, the Air Force plans to expand its land prepositioning in southwest Asia. In his last annual report to Congress as Secretary of Defense, Cheney noted that the U.S. pre-positions support equipment and initial supplies for 750 aircraft in Southwest Asia.

CENTCOM is seeking to increase its pre-positioned material in the theater. According to Congressional testimony by Hoar, the goal is 200,000 short tons afloat or 350,000 short tons ashore. In a future war, this would be the equivalent of approximately 28 shiploads or 24,500 C-141 aircraft loads being pre-positioned.

In accordance with the 1993 Mobility Requirements Study (MRS), the Pentagon plans to increase both its sealift and airlift capability. The Navy intends to acquire--either through new construction or conversion--additional sealift capacity equal to 20 large roll-on/roll-off ships. These would be maintained in a high state of readiness for rapid deployment of Army combat and support unit equipment and supplies. The Navy also intends to lease two container ships for pre-positioning.

If all the assets envisioned under the MRS are put into place by the end of the decade, the U.S., in the event of another Desert Storm, could deploy five Army divisions, along with a Marine Expeditionary Force and tactical air, within about eight weeks. That would be about twice as fast as it took an equivalent number of forces to deploy during Operation Desert Storm.

Ongoing U.S. military activities in the Persian Gulf region can be summed up by the line used by Arnold Schwarzenegger in the movie "The Terminator": "I'll be back." While politicians may debate publicly about trying to avoid another Desert Storm, military planners consider the prospect an almost inevitable certainty--if not against Iraq, then vs. Iran. The Pentagon sees future war in the Persian Gulf as its primary raison d'etre, in terms of overseas conflicts.

Military officials may hope to have some help from other nations, either under the auspices of the UN or as part of some loose regional defense structure. To that end, they have invited European and Arab countries outside the Gulf to join in exercises. The bottom line, however, is that, when war comes, they expect the U.S. will be fighting essentially alone. The phrase, "together when we can, alone when we must" that was used by Bush Administration officials also is in vogue with the Clinton Administration.

When it comes to the Persian Gulf, there is remarkable continuity between the Bush and Clinton Administrations' emphasis on regional threats as a danger to U.S. security. When presenting the FY 1994 Pentagon budget, Secretary of Defense Les Aspin indicated: "The thing that really drives the defense budget now is the regional threats. We still have people like Saddam Hussein, we still have bad guys which have military capability, and we need to have the capability in the United States military to be able to deal with those people."