Playing the numbers game

USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education), July, 1998 by Gerald F. Kreyche

Numbers are totally a human invention. There is no such thing as zero, for example, yet its concept is one of humankind's greatest achievements. Numbers so prevail today that in many cases they have replaced words in our computerized society.

Number crunchers are in their heyday. Wall Street hourly awaits new economic figures on unemployment, gross national product, rates of inflation, etc., and fortunes rise and fall on those numbers. Actuaries can reel off life expectancies, and insurance companies put their money where their actuaries' mouths are, so certain are they of the predictions. Every day, we read of the numerical chances of women developing breast cancer or men getting prostate cancer.

Time has a regular column, simply entitled "Numbers," that gives various statistics ranging from the amount of crimes committed in a given period and a given age group, the numbers of people infected with the HIV virus, the average pay increase for workers, etc.

For many of us non-mathematicians, numbers have become nauseating, yet one can't argue with their success. Nonetheless, statistics never apply to the individual as such, but only to the group. This reminds me of the statistician who drowned crossing a river that, on average, was just two feet deep.

Sometimes, the word has an ominous meaning, as in the expression, "Your number's up!" Many regard certain numbers superstitiously, especially 13. Some multi-storied hotels even skip the 13th floor, going from 12 to 14. (At the beginning of the year, many worried about 1998, for it contained three Fridays that fall on the 13th of the month.) For years, residents of Colorado and New Mexico have petitioned to have U.S. Highway 666 changed to a different designation. It is a road fraught with accidents, and locals call it the Devil's Highway, from the Biblical reference to 666.

Yet, there are so-called lucky numbers, too. Lottery players persist in betting their lucky numbers, despite constant losses. In the Western world at least, seven often is considered a lucky number and every crap-shooter pleads with the dice to come up with that winning seven. Airplane manufacturers, well-aware that there are many white-knuckled flyers around, make full use of this lucky number. Note the many commercial airplanes numbered 707, 727, 737, 747, and 757.

In the Western world, the number three frequently takes first place in popularity. (Try an experiment before a large group of people, asking them to choose a number from one to 10 and write it down. I would be surprised if the numbers three or seven don't appear most frequently.) To illustrate the impact of the number three, consider the following questions: How many strikes and the batter is out in baseball? How many wishes does the genie give its benefactor? How many cheers does the audience give for a candidate? How incongruous would it seem to use two or four instead of three in the above instances?

In his article, "The Study of Folklore," Axel Orlic formulates his Law of Three. He cites the many childhood songs and stories that center on that number, such as "Goldilocks and the Three Bears," "Rub-a-Dub-Dub, Three Men in a Tub," "Three Blind Mice," "The Three Little Kittens," and "The Three Little Pigs."

If there were a sacred number in Christianity, three would be it. Just examine the Bible. How many wise men came to honor Jesus? How many days was Jesus "lost" in the temple? How many tents were set up at the Transfiguration? How many were there in the Holy Family? How many years to Jesus' public ministry? How many were crucified at Calvary? How many hours was Jesus on the cross? How many persons are there in the Trinity? Note, too, the three supernatural virtues of Faith, Hope, and Charity. Three clearly is an overriding number in Christianity.

For the Plains Indian, four seems to be the sacred number. There are four sacred fire arrows; creation was in four days; one is given four wishes; there are four winds and four-day fasts; puberty is celebrated by a four-day ceremony, etc. Considering this, psychiatrist Carl Jung tried to apply four to Christianity. There were four horsemen of the Apocalypse, four Evangelists, and four segments of the halo in paintings of Jesus. Lastly, he claims there really are four members of the Trinity, Mary being the fourth, but, as a woman, she is a repressed figure.

Numerologists and astrologists would have the entire world and its events foretold in numbers. Early Greek thinkers were enamored with numbers as well. The Pythagoreans, to whom is accredited the theorem of the square of the hypotenuse, held that all things are designated by special numbers. Three represented holiness; four represented justice, etc. The most sacred number was 10, and, to make things fit, knowing there were only nine planets, they added an invented counter-Earth.

Many scholars maintain that mathematics with its numbers provides certitude, while sensory observation merely produces opinion. Today, one might argue that the certainty in mathematics is built into the humanly devised system, which does not allow for exceptions.