It oughta be a crime - Omnibus Crime Bill of 1994

THE RESURRECTION of the Comeback Kid's crime bill hangs in doubt as we go to press, with Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole clutching a letter signed by 40 other Republican senators threatening to block it by procedural means if it is not improved by amendment But if it were improved from their point of view, it would probably become unacceptable to liberal Democrats in the House. In short, Senate Republicans are close to putting a stranglehold on a bill that a month ago everyone was certain would pass, if only because no one wants to vote against a "crime" bill.

What happened? In those few weeks the debate on the bill shifted dramatically to the right Whether the GOP can express--and capitalize on--the newly aggressive public mood on crime depends on whether Senate Republicans can avoid the mistakes of their counterparts in the House, who dealt Mr. Clinton a stunning blow, then saw dozens of their own members help him back to his feet.

Mr. Clinton's defeat on the procedural vote on August 11 marked him as a President with the legislative clout of Jimmy Carter on one of his bad days. Things got worse when he spent a weekend denouncing Republicans for failing to do God's will, and still couldn't win the 8 additional Democratic votes he needed. So, finally, he invited to the White House the 11 Republicans who had betrayed their party by voting for the rule. They in turn insisted that Newt Gingrich come along. That was the great bipartisan breakthrough.

Now, Mr. Gingrich was not dealt a strong hand on the crime bill; at some point, no matter what, Republican moderates were going to peel away from the party But his giddiness at seeing a punch-drunk Clinton reaching out to the GOP for support undercut the Republican position unnecessarily. In politics, the point of someone's being down is that he affords a better target for kicking. When he was praising Mr. Clinton's sincerity, Mr. Gingrich should have been demanding that all the $9-billion worth of goo-goo social-welfare programs be ditched. Instead, he encouraged the negotiations between GOP moderates and the President that produced a bill similar in substance to the original, only this time with the label "bipartisan."

The $3.3 billion ostentatiously cut from the crime bill was shadow money that wasn't authorized in the first place. The bill still retains about $7 billion in spending on social programs like the "community-based justice grants designed to" require prosecutors to "focus on the offender, not simply the specific offense, and impose individualized sanctions [such as] conflict resolution, treatment, counseling, and recreation programs." Prison funding was actually reduced by $800 million in the moderates' deal, and there's still no guarantee that any of the prison dollars will actually go to building new space (although state recipients of the prison money are still required to implement "comprehensive correctional plan[s]" that must include "drug diversion programs," "community corrections programs," "job skills programs," and so on). "The New York Times headline--"House approves crime bill after days of bargaining, giving victory to Clinton"--says the rest.

This brilliant deal was brought to you by the Clinton Republicans, including rising GOP star John Kasich, who was called into last-minute negotiations by GOP moderates Mike Castle and Susan Molinari to provide budget expertise. The House Republican's top number cruncher, Mr. Kasich presumably understands that the new $30.2-billion package is still underfunded by roughtly $10 billion. Funding for the crime bill is supposed to come from Al Gore's reinventing government, but no savings estimate for it has exceeded $20 billion. This shortfall could require a tax increase unless offsetting discretionary savings are found elsewhere--a doubtful proposition for election-year appropriators.

Mr. Kasich was drawn into this self-deception by the "new spirit of bipartisanship," a Washington phrase that means process triumphs over principles. Senior House Republicans are now suggesting Mr. Kasich should be replaced as leader of the GOP budget caucus. Sadly, we have to agree. Another crime-bill loser is Michael Huffington, looking to unseat Dianne Feinstein in this year's California Senate race. Just as he was getting the trust of conservative Republicans and Democrats, Mr. Huffington voted for a budget-busting bill with all manner of fuzzy-headed programs. Susan Molinari hurt herself too, imperiling her bid to become vice chairman of the Republican House Conference.

The larger problem in the crime debate has been that Republicans were to some extent compromised from the beginning Their own proposals had their share sense, allowing George Mitchell to go on Meet the Press and after a lengthy recital--"supervised sports programs, tutorial and monitoring programs, sporting and recreational equipment, nutrition guidance," etc.--ask: "How is it that these things are good when the Republicans propose them but special-interest pork when the Democrats propose them?" If, from the start, Republicans had embraced the NRAs alternative crime bill--which had money for cops and prisons, tougher sentencing provisions, and nothing else--they would have been in a much stronger position to exploit the shift in public opinion at the end.