A heap of troubles: and how John McCain should try to surmount them

National Review, June 2, 2008 by Ramesh Ponnuru

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

REPUBLICANS have spent months delighting in the divisions among Democrats. They fear Senator Obama's potential to win a landslide in November less than they did when he won the Iowa caucuses at the beginning of January. They think he has a number of vulnerabilities, including his difficulty winning working-class-white votes, his ties to Jeremiah Wright, and his pronounced liberalism. But Republicans shouldn't kid themselves: At this point, Obama has to be favored to beat John McCain.

Even as Clinton and Obama have kept battling, national polls have shown McCain neck and neck with the Illinois senator. It's going to get worse for McCain. Once everyone sees that Obama has finally dispatched Clinton, his victory will probably give him a boost in the polls--and even more favorable news coverage than he has usually gotten. Obama will be able to start courting the general electorate, not just Democrats. His allies will start blanketing the airwaves with attacks on McCain. Their goal will be to define him in the public mind negatively, and early, the way Bill Clinton defined Bob Dole early in 1996.

Republicans should count themselves lucky that they are in the hunt at all. It is rare for a two-term president to have a successor from his party. Al Gore lost in 2000, and he had peace and seeming prosperity on his side. This year, economic anxiety and a still-unpopular war are adding to the time-for-a-change sentiment that the public would normally feel. The Bush administration's reputation for incompetence is not helping, either.

The evidence for a Democratic edge is everywhere. President Bush has been unpopular for a long time. A record number of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. The polls show that more people identify with the Democrats than with the Republicans. On most issues they trust the Democrats more. The high turnout in the Democratic primaries--it was higher than the Republican turnout even when both nominations were contested--suggests a lot of enthusiasm among Democrats. They can't wait for the Bush era to be over. Another sign of enthusiasm: Obama's campaign is awash in money, and so are allied organizations.

Nobody is sure how Obama's race will affect the election, but it could add to the Democratic advantage. Some voters will be uncomfortable electing a black president. But others will be excited by the chance to make history; attacks on Obama will be inhibited; and black voters will turn out in larger numbers than usual to vote for him.

While McCain is the underdog in this election, there are at least seven things he can do to even the odds.

1. Defuse the age issue. As Jonathan Martin recently pointed out in Politico, "old" is the first thing a plurality of Americans think when they think about McCain. Leno and Letterman are reinforcing that impression. Howard Dean says that Democrats are too "ethical" to raise the issue, but then says that McCain is "from the 1940s." Obama took an opportunity to say that McCain has "lost his bearings."

The McCain campaign reacted angrily, which was a mistake, drawing attention to the topic and looking touchy. A vigorous campaign schedule, publicity for his still-active mother, and a few well-timed jokes would be a better approach. (McCain has already cut an ad with his mother.) Pledging to serve only one term, a step his advisers have debated, might also provide some reassurance, as would selecting a running mate who would be ready from Day One. Making Obama's inexperience an issue, meanwhile, would put a positive spin on his years.

2. Raise money. A few months ago, there was some discussion of how different the electoral map could look this year: Virginia could go for the Democrats, or New Jersey for the Republicans. That talk has died down, especially as Obama has started to seem like a conventional liberal. But Obama's fundraising could still force Republicans to play defense in places they usually take for granted. As one strategist puts it: "[Obama's] natural crossover appeal doesn't let him expand the map. His superior financial resources let him expand the map."

McCain does not need to raise as much money as Obama in order to win the election. But he does need enough money to compete.

3. Develop a domestic policy based on reforming institutions to serve the middle class. On campaign finance and earmarks, McCain has credentials as a reformer hostile to business as usual. But in neither of these areas can reforms tangibly improve the lives of voters. Americans respect McCain as a patriot, and his positions on social issues are politically more attractive than those of Obama. But he needs to have something to offer voters to offset the subsidies that the Democrats are peddling.

McCain is almost there on health care, the top domestic issue--which is to say the top issue--of this election. His plan makes it easier for individuals to own their own insurance policies, thus addressing middle-class concerns about affordability and control. But he has only started to publicize his plan, and has not done so in reformist or middle-class terms.