W. as Campaigner - George W. Bush presidential candidacy

National Review, July 12, 1999 by John J. Miller

Tests that Bush has passed.

Listen to George W. Bush's naysayers, and it sounds like the governor of Texas is a political novice about to run an amateur-hour campaign for president. "Republicans want a winner, but Gov. Bush is totally untested," complains Lamar Alexander. Adds Pat Buchanan: "It's not unusual for hot front-runners to get into trouble, especially for one as untested as Bush." Even Republicans who aren't running against Bush have their doubts. "I have nothing against George Bush," says David Keene of the American Conservative Union, "but he is totally untested nationally."

Keene has a point: Bush has never before faced the national electorate. But the same could be said of most of the other candidates: Gary Bauer and Elizabeth Dole have not previously run for any office at all, and Rep. John Kasich, Sen. John McCain, and Sen. Bob Smith have never faced voters outside their home states. To the extent that Alexander and Buchanan have-they've participated in a few GOP primaries-they're experienced at losing. At best, Alexander, Buchanan, and Steve Forbes have faced a few pop quizzes, with decidedly mixed results. The only Republican in the race who has truly faced a national test is Dan Quayle. But nobody thinks he can win.

What would satisfy Bush's doubters and make them believe he's been "tested"? Do they think he would be a better candidate today if, in addition to his two gubernatorial victories in the country's second most populous state, he had a couple of terms in the Senate under his belt? Or if he had run unsuccessfully in the 1996 primaries? Maybe his detractors think he should lose the nomination next year-so he can be a really strong candidate in 2004. And tested!

Bush's swing through Iowa and New Hampshire in early June had the trappings of a maiden voyage, but Bush is no rookie. He has plenty of firsthand political experience, from participating in his father's races-starting with an unsuccessful Senate bid in 1970-to his own gubernatorial runs in 1994 and 1998. "He's a natural campaigner," says Kevin Moomaw of the New Mexico GOP, who worked closely with Bush in Texas during the 1988 presidential contest. "We did about 300 events together. He was a very popular surrogate speaker for his father, and he always worked the room like a veteran politician." Bush has learned about the mechanics of campaigning at almost every level and from several vantage points. This experience not only shows that he's a "tested" candidate, but also suggests patterns that will emerge during his run for the White House.

In 1988, Bush did more than shake hands and ask people to vote for his dad. He was deeply involved in the race, even moving his family to Washington and setting up an office in the campaign headquarters (where he kept a spittoon behind his desk). One of his chief duties was to keep emerging celebrities like strategist Lee Atwater and media guru Roger Ailes loyal to the Bush family. He also learned a lesson about the politics of personal destruction, playing a key role in quashing gossip about his father. Whispers about an affair started making the rounds in Washington a year before the election, and none of the campaign's hired guns felt comfortable confronting their boss about it. Bush then approached his father privately and popped the question. Nothing to it, the vice president told his son-a conversation Atwater subsequently leaked to the press, silencing the rumor mill.

It was back in 1978 that Bush had gotten his first taste of hardball politics-in west Texas, when he ran for Congress. His Democratic opponent, Kent Hance, successfully portrayed Bush as an elitist carpetbagger with suspicious connections, via his father, to the Trilateral Commission. Bush lost, but managed a respectable 47 percent. (Today Hance is a Republican and Bush supporter.)

It was also in that year that Bush revealed his tendency to wage positive campaigns-something he would go on to do in his statewide races and can be expected to do as he runs for president. Although his associates say Bush approved of Atwater's decision to use negative advertising in the Bush- Dukakis campaign of 1988, it's a strategy the son himself has avoided. He may have even paid a price for this reluctance in that 1978 congressional race.

Then, Hance sent a letter to voters criticizing Bush for an ad in the Texas Tech newspaper promising free beer at a campaign event. The letter, which began "Dear Fellow Christians," said that Bush meant "to persuade young college students to vote for and support him by offering free alcohol." This, it admonished, did not indicate "high character." At the time, Bush knew that Hance had a financial interest in a Lubbock bar frequented by Tech students, but he chose not to expose his opponent as a hypocrite. "In retrospect I probably should have counterattacked," said Bush in 1994.

Bush had another opportunity to return punches in 1994 and, again, refrained. Democratic governor Ann Richards was a popular incumbent, while little about Bush was known except his name. Bush had every incentive to launch attack ads, a standard strategy for someone in his position. Richards herself couldn't resist the low road. She publicly labeled Bush a "jerk" and called Republicans "mongers of hate." Perhaps these were efforts to light Bush's famous temper-something Gore's bombastic rhetoric will aim to do next year-but Bush wouldn't cooperate. Richards had won office in 1990 partly because her opponent had appeared to act in an ungentlemanly way toward a lady. Bush avoided making the race personal and coasted to victory, winning almost every region of the state and cutting deeply into Richards's advantage among women. He topped that performance in his reelection last year, another campaign free of negative ads. Bush captured nearly 70 percent of the popular vote and more than 40 percent support among Hispanics. Between the two races, he raised roughly $30 million and attracted close to 5 million votes.