The Week - goings on in politics and society

National Review, July 23, 2001

--The latest Clinton pardon scandal has provoked furious denials of any association with a notorious crime family: Thomas Gambino says he would never have anything to do with the Clintons.

--Recent polls showing an average approval rating of 54 percent for President Bush prompted a premature media consensus that he faces a dire popularity problem. One poll showing 50 percent of the public approving of Bush was dramatically described as "the lowest approval rating for a president in five years," which neatly avoided comparisons to President Clinton's first six months in office (when he was supported by only 39 percent). That many voters disapprove of Bush is not surprising: The enduring partisan divide in the electorate means that a large number of voters would not credit him if he were to cure the common cold. But there is also some good news for Bush in the polls. He has improved his numbers among blacks (up to 36 percent) and Hispanics (59 percent). What should concern the White House is that the public has responded in a lukewarm fashion after the achievement of a large part of Bush's agenda: a popular tax cut and a bipartisan education bill. For the rest of the year, Bush is set to play defense: on a patients' bill of rights, on campaign-finance reform, on the minimum wage, on spending bills. Bush's problem isn't so much that his polls are drifting downward; it's that Washington is drifting away from his agenda.

--Bret Schundler won big over ex-congressman Bob Franks in New Jersey's GOP gubernatorial primary last month. He won against long odds and an obviously hostile party establishment. Conservatives are particularly excited because Schundler is a pro-life tax cutter. He is widely regarded as the underdog once again in the general election against Democrat Jim McGreevey, but his past may point the way to another victory. He won three elections as mayor of Jersey City-dominated by Democrats and beset by social problems-in part by campaigning for school choice. Schundler did not deliver on this promise because he needed Trenton to pass enabling legislation, which never happened despite promises of support from former governor Christine Todd Whitman and Republican control of state government. If he combines a strong message on taxes with a realistic plan to bring even a limited form of school choice to New Jersey, Schundler will become one of the most exciting conservative candidates in recent memory to run for statewide office anywhere-and in one of the most unlikely places.

--The Bush administration wants to spend another $18 billion on the military in 2002, a figure well below what secretary of defense Don Rumsfeld wanted and what is needed to restore the armed forces to vigorous health. In frank testimony before the Senate, Rumsfeld explained the downward spiral created by the failure to spend adequately on procurement throughout the 1990s. For instance, the desirable average age for naval aircraft is considered to be 11 years, but the average age has risen to 18 years. Just maintaining that average with the current naval force of 4,200 aircraft would mean building roughly 200 new planes a year. The Bush budget provides for just 88 new aircraft. So the American military will get more and more rickety, and the cost associated with "catching up" to previous standards for equipment and readiness will get higher and higher. The spin out of the Bush White House is that the smaller-than-hoped-for defense increase represents only a holding pattern until Rumsfeld comes up with a grand new defense strategy. But that strategy will now almost certainly have to be built around a reduced U.S. force. As for Rumsfeld's vaunted military transformation, "we cannot build a 21st- century force quite yet," he explained in his testimony, "because the 20th-century force we have is in serious need of repair." Oh well, maybe next century.

--Apparently there was a quid pro quo attached to John McCain's campaign appearances on behalf of Republican House candidates last year. The Arizona senator is insisting that all GOP freshmen with whom he came in contact last fall must vote for his version of campaign- finance reform-as though support for constitutionally dubious advertising restrictions were a communicable disease. McCain is right to be nervous about the prospects of his pet project in the House, but minority Democrats may prove the biggest obstacle. They increasingly seem to realize that ensuring spending on voter-registration and get- out-the-vote efforts in their communities-which are part of what "soft money" pays for-is more important than obeying the platitudinous directives of the New York Times. So, McCain huffs, the Times puffs, but a vigorous and free system of federal elections may yet survive all the windbaggery.

--Those conservatives who worried that the president's faith-based initiative would end up reducing the independence of religious groups are being vindicated by the legislative wrangling on the issue. Initially, it was assumed that groups that received federal funds would be allowed to use their own funds to finance religious activities. Now the administration is promising liberals in Congress that groups that engage in "sectarian worship, instruction, or proselytization" will have to form separate organizations to participate in federal programs. But there have been some improvements to the bill: More aid would come in the form of vouchers, which offer fewer opportunities for regulatory intrusion. The remaining federal grants, though, would have a secularizing impact-not to mention a bureaucratizing one-on religious charities. Bush is giving congressional Republicans a difficult choice: enact a deeply flawed policy or vote down one of his signature initiatives.