Bush by the Numbers: How does he stand, and what's he doing? - Poll - President Bush's approval ratings are around 50%, although he is expected to get a boost from the tax rebate checks, an idea that was not his

National Review, August 6, 2001 by Byron York

Another example of White House image-awareness came the day after Bush's pep talk in the House, when he staged a Rose Garden rollout of his Medicare proposals. He made his speech in front of a big mockup of the new prescription-drug discount card the administration will make available to millions of seniors. Daschle was quick to call it a gimmick, which probably meant that he feared it might have some public appeal. And the very fact that Bush showcased the card at the same event at which he was presenting serious ideas for Medicare reform indicates the premium the White House is now putting on salesmanship. (Nevertheless, bad timing continued to dog the president: The Medicare ceremony was overshadowed by the climactic House battle over campaign- finance reform happening the same day-not as bad as the signing of the tax-cut bill being swamped by news of Sen. Jim Jeffords's switch to the Democratic party, but bad enough.)

So the White House political team is keeping a close watch on the numbers. And should they ever become too worried, they can get the relax-and-take-a-deep-breath perspective from Matthew Dowd, Bush's pollster during the campaign and now director of polling at the Republican National Committee. "The president's numbers are actually within the range of where they are supposed to be, once you acknowledge that the electorate has been polarized for the last ten or twelve years," Dowd says. "We're not in an era where a president can get 70 percent job-approval ratings, absent a major crisis." (Or a sex scandal, although that probably wouldn't work for Bush.)

Dowd explains that about 40 percent of the electorate is Democratic and gives Bush a high job-disapproval rating. Another 40 percent is Republican and gives him a high approval rating. That leaves 20 percent in the middle, and so far Bush is getting a positive rating from more than half of them. "Fifty-two or 53 percent is basically his equilibrium point," Dowd says. "If we had these numbers in October 2004, I'd be ecstatic."

Dowd pours out plenty of factlets to support his point. Bill Clinton had a 54 percent job-approval rating when he beat Bob Dole by nearly nine points. Clinton didn't get a 60 percent job-approval rating until several years into his presidency (Bush got one in February, March, and April, according to the Gallup Poll). And no president with a job- approval rating above 47 percent has lost a race for reelection.

These are good things to remember, although it's not terribly hard to imagine Bush occasionally slipping below 47 percent, even with the new emphasis on selling his programs. In the meantime, the only thing the president can be absolutely certain of is that Daschle and the Democrats will work relentlessly to push his polls as low as possible- even after those rebate checks arrive in the mail.