In victory's direction: where we're headed in Iraq, and why we must arrive

National Review, Sept 15, 2008 by Bing West

If Iraqis believe America is abandoning them, their nation will fall apart. Our involvement in Vietnam ended in 1975 when the last helicopter flew out of Saigon, leaving behind a panic-stricken mob at the mercy of their conquerors. Alternatively, the endgame can occur when things quiet down enough that the press places Iraq on the back pages, as it is now doing. If Iraqis believe America is standing by them, they will hold together and the violence will continue to abate as our forces gradually leave.

Some American forces will be needed for years, in steadily decreasing numbers. Senator Obama's pledge to remove all combat brigades within 16 months, first made when a civil war was raging two years ago, is not relevant to today's circumstances; the definition of "combat" is too elastic to be relevant. The model shown by Colonel Caraccilo, in which a brigade of three battalions is gradually reduced to a single-battalion transition task force, is likely to be widely duplicated.

Wars turn on confidence. Iraqis--soldiers, police, and citizens--need to believe that Americans will aid them in extremis, though that need will diminish as the Iraqis learn to stand on their own feet. To use Petraeus's phrase, the definition of victory is "a sustainable security arrangement ... that Iraqis can take over by themselves."

Maintaining and reinforcing a stable Iraq is in the economic and security interests of the United States. We can and should gradually withdraw most of our troops; the Iraqi politicians will see to that in any event. And as we do so, we must continue to reassure the Iraqis that we stand beside them.

The burden and pain of Iraq were borne by a relatively small number, like Jim and Maria Simpson, who lost their son Abe, as well as Abe's best friend and cousin, Jonathan. Both died fighting in the Habbaniyah-Fallujah corridor. "Just a few families stepped forward," Jim Simpson told me. "I think we're losing the sense of being a nation." Losing the sense of being a nation should concern us all. We have fought the war in Iraq as a nation divided. If we are still this divided in the next war, there is a good chance we will be defeated.

Public support will be the key to any future conflict. Wars are strewn with blunders, and mistakes are not a reason to abandon the mission. Yet as the American military has adapted continually to overcome its mistakes and those of the government, American society has became more divided. As Rome and Athens demonstrated two millennia ago, every military, no matter how strong its internal code, eventually mirrors its society. It was easy to criticize the Bush administration for its faults; it is harder to decide how our society can retain sufficient unity to be the world's strongest tribe.

Mr. West is a former assistant secretary of defense and Marine. His third book on Iraq is entitled The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics and the Endgame in Iraq.