China: A Reality Check: Truth and lies in the Asian behemoth - a visit to China leaves the impression that the dictatorship remains firmly established

National Review, Sept 17, 2001 by John Derbyshire

My feeling, as I have made plain, is that the present dictatorship is more firmly established than I had thought before I went to China. The urban middle classes, who are supposed to be the driving force behind political reform, do not like the Communists very much, but they do not mind them very much either. The propaganda of the Communist party, even at its most mendacious, has been very successful, and overwhelming numbers of Chinese people believe what the party wants them to believe. Where economics and propaganda fail them, the Communists can still rely on fear. Everyone knows what they are capable of. From this point of view, the events of 1989 greatly strengthened the dictatorship, as of course they were intended to do. I cannot see any reason why the Communists should not go on ruling China and her imperial possessions indefinitely.

It is, of course, possible that the stability I saw is all an illusion. My visit was brief, and restricted in the ways I have described. Some other observers, with perhaps better claims to understanding, detect tremendous tensions beneath the surface of Chinese life. Gordon Chang, who has lived in China for twenty years, argues in his new book, The Coming Collapse of China, that the nation's economy is all make- believe, and that China's entry into the World Trade Organization this year or next will bring it all crashing down. He calls China "a lake of gasoline." Well, I heard some bitter grumbling, especially from the lower ranks of Chinese society, but I cannot truthfully say that I smelled gasoline. It seems to me, so far as it is possible to know anything about such matters, that China's rulers are well aware of the dangers inherent in WTO accession, and are preparing for them in their own way. That, I think, is what lies behind the current wave of repression. When you know there are some bumps in the road ahead, you want everything on the truck strapped down tight.

I think the Communists may well ride out present dangers, and maintain sufficient public support, or at least indifference, to see them safely through WTO accession and forward to a triumphant and well-organized Olympic spectacular that will further cement their hold on the nation. Prognostications about China are always hazardous, and risk making one look a fool in five or ten years' time, but I see no great changes in China's near future. As a lover of liberty, justice, and truth, I say this sadly, in frustration; but also, thinking of my Chinese friends and relatives, with much sympathetic understanding.