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National Review, Dec 7, 1998 by John Hood

Independents broke heavily for Democratic candidates in both states, too. One set of swing voters-women who had supported Clinton in past elections-heard nothing appealing from Republicans. In 1994, they had worried about the tax burden, crime, and welfare spending, but all three seem to be falling this year. They then turned their attention to education, on which Republicans have yet to find a voice. For the other major group of independents-populist Perot supporters, most of them male, enamored of term limits and against corporate welfare-Republicans promised a lot in 1994 and failed to deliver. These disaffected voters didn't even show up this year.

It wasn't as if Republicans didn't have some tailwinds in these states. At the same time Democrats were winning congressional and legislative races, Washington's controversial ballot initiative banning racial preferences passed overwhelmingly. It got the support of 58 per cent of the overall vote, 65 per cent of white men, 51 per cent of white women, a majority of moderates and independents, and even a third of Democrats. In North Carolina, Republicans made impressive gains in statewide elections for the Supreme Court and Court of Appeals.

But, hitching their wagon to the scandal star, Republicans in North Carolina, Washington, and other battleground states had no clear message on the core issue of taxes and the swing issue of education. The notable exceptions are Florida, Texas, and Michigan, where strong Republicans at the top of the ticket helped to articulate a conservative, problem-solving agenda and add legislative seats to the GOP column.

The bottom line: If you can't turn out your base and appeal to even a sliver of independents, you will lose competitive elections in marginal districts and open seats. Forget about grandiose visions of changing political paradigms. It doesn't take a lot of voters to restructure power in state capitals. In North Carolina, a shift of fewer than 2,000 votes from Democrats to Republicans out of 1.6 million cast in competitive N.C. House districts would have kept the GOP in charge. On such slim margins are revolutions-and counter-revolutions-made.

Mr. Hood is a television commentator and syndicated columnist in North Carolina, and president of the John Locke Foundation, a state policy think tank based in Raleigh.