Lost Cause: Why southern Democrats won't rise again

National Review, Oct 23, 2000 by John Hood

Of course, you can't run a Jesse Helms-style campaign if you seek election to state or local government. Nor can Republicans hope to prevail in tight races if they appear not to care about the quality of core public services such as education and highways. These propositions are true not just in the South, but everywhere; and Republicans who are able to present themselves as reasonable, competent problem-solvers are doing well in most southern jurisdictions. In North Carolina, a shocking four of the state's five largest cities have Republican mayors, some of whom have been able to cut taxes, privatize some services, and redirect resources to public safety and other priorities important to conservatives. Traditional Democratic power brokers are flummoxed by these developments.

Republicans do face some serious challenges in the region. When you exclude Florida (which, geography notwithstanding, is not a "southern" state) and Virginia (a case somewhat similar to Florida), GOP gains in the early 1990s have faded a bit: In the past two years, Republican governors in South Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi have been replaced by Democrats. The governors of Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana are Republican, but their legislatures remain firmly Democratic. The GOP's share of southern legislative seats, while up dramatically from the 10-to-20 percent rates that prevailed until the 1980s, remains mired at 40 percent (outside the South, Republicans enjoy a slim majority).

Still, the prognosis for southern Republicans remains good. The party is much stronger than it was in, say, 1984-when Reagan won big in the South, but Republicans got only 42 percent of the vote in southern House and Senate contests. In 1998, the year of the so-called Gingrich meltdown, GOP candidates won 54 percent. Furthermore, the party is building a farm team of local officeholders who may one day move on to legislative or congressional races. A better-than-average showing in the South this fall by semi-southerner George W. Bush-whose poll numbers in Dixie have already reversed themselves from the slide of early September-might well leave several legislative chambers in GOP hands for the post-2000 redistricting, creating a new political landscape for future races.

The national media will continue their search for exceptions, but the overall trend remains unaltered: Prominent southern Democrats are continuing to switch their allegiances, and sometimes their party registrations, to the GOP. In North Carolina, business executives with lifelong Democratic ties, even former Clinton supporters, are giving Bush money and chairing his fundraisers. This isn't news, but it's the truth.