How fares our project in Iraq?

National Review, Dec 31, 2004

* How fares our project in Iraq? To paraphrase Chou En-lai, it is simply too soon to tell--although the January elections will be a crucial indicator of Iraq's future. The Bush administration has rightly been adamant that they go forward on schedule, lest they never take place at all. In Afghanistan, the elections were a strong civic statement in favor of forging a better country, and served to isolate further the country's radical elements.

The same could happen in Iraq. Unless the violence spins totally out of control (and in 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces there are fewer than four violent incidents a day), nearly every Shia in the country is bound to vote and the Kurds are supportive of the process. The United Iraq Alliance, the slate forged by Shia leader Ayatollah Sistani, includes the major Shia factions and representatives of other ethnic groups--its formation is in and of itself a significant act of political pluralism. Some Sunni clerics have called for an election boycott, but the Sunnis are not a monolith and meaningful participation by them is not out of the question. If Iraq is truly to "turn the corner," it will begin doing so on January 30.