The Week - public opinion poll finds George W. Bush leading Allbert Gore, Jr., in several demographic categories - this and other news items are discussed

National Review, May 22, 2000

Gore accuses Bush of clinging to a "Cold War mindset." Of course, a lot of Democrats opposed this mindset during the Cold War.

First Netscape merged with AOL. Then AOL merged with Time Warner. What next? A Netscape/AOL/Time Warner merger with the Justice Department?

Six weeks after Super Tuesday, polls show Gov. Bush recovering nicely from the primaries. A recent roundup of state polls shows Bush leading Gore in 27 states worth 308 electoral votes, well over the 270 needed to win. Last month's national survey of likely voters by American Viewpoint found Bush leading Gore 44 percent to 37 percent, with a 13- point lead among men and a 2-point lead among women. Bush is also ahead among seniors (by 6 points), ticket-splitters (8 points), Catholics (11 points), and investors (9 points). In April 1996, by comparison, the doomed Bob Dole trailed Bill Clinton by almost 20 points among women, ticket-splitters, and Catholics. Asked whether they would rather restore honesty and integrity to the White House by electing Bush, or stay the course of peace and prosperity with Gore, voters chose the former by a 9-point margin. None of this means Bush will win. But that Bush can win there should be no doubt.

John McCain completed a flip-flop-flip on the Con federate flag, calling for it to come down from the South Carolina state capitol when he finally landed upright. Give him a 10 for execution and a 0 for difficulty. McCain declared that his latest, and presumably final, position would open him to criticism from all quarters, to predictably universal plaudits from the press. Meanwhile, in between rounds of bitching about his treatment from Bush, McCain traveled (yet again) to Vietnam, where he (yet again) basked in the media spotlight. As Emerson once put it: "Every hero becomes a bore at last."

With Bush set to unveil his ideas on free-market reform of Social Security, Al Gore has already started blasting reform as-you guessed it-a "risky scheme." The recent stock- market volatility may indeed increase people's fears about relying on private investment to fund their retirements. Bush should preempt that criticism by pointing out that most of the new investors are in the markets for the long term and that over the long term, the stock market has consistently offered a good return. The fact that the new investors have not panicked-have instead, by and large, seen market declines as buying opportunities- shows that the public's financial sophistication is growing and that individuals can be trusted to manage their money. It is an argument for personal Social Security accounts, not against them. Bush can also promise that any reform will let people have a choice whether to invest or to stay in the old system, and that there will be a safety net. Furthermore, Bush must set the manageable risks of private investment against the certainty of an abysmal return from an unreformed Social Security system. Gore argues that the money Bush would use to fund the transition to an improved system should instead be used to pay down debt. But that's a false choice. Increased private investment (and, Bush should add, increased growth resulting from lower taxes) will mean that we will have more assets in the future which we can use to handle any outstanding debts. Bush can win this argument and rally the new investors to his side. The election may turn on whether he does.

Democratic senator Evan Bayh of Indiana is touted by some as an ideal running mate for Gore-a young moderate from a heartland state that normally leans Republican. But he may have a fatal flaw: Bayh voted for the partial-birth-abortion ban last fall. National Review Online (www.nationalreview.com) asked Patricia Ireland of the National Organization for Women about the consequences of Gore's putting him on the ticket. "It would cause a great deal of concern about his commitment to abortion rights. Among our activists, there would be a decided lack of interest in campaigning for him and getting out the vote," she said. It looks like the former Indiana governor may be another fatality of the Democrats' pro-abortion extremism. What was that about "tolerance" and "litmus tests" again?

New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani has been getting the sympathy he deserves for his prostate cancer. He also deserves thanks for announcing it so forthrightly (the contrast with the evasions of the late Sen. Paul Tsongas is painful). Preliminary reports suggest that the cancer has been caught early and may well prove no obstacle to Giuliani's candidacy. It is still an open question whether another Republican would run a better race against Mrs. Clinton. Giuliani mobilizes the Democratic base, especially blacks; he will lose some pro-life votes for supporting partial-birth abortion; and his appeal to fence-sitting liberals may have been compromised by the shooting of Patrick Dorismond. There are two tantalizing possibilities, if Giuliani drops out. Putting Gov. George Pataki in the Senate would get him out of Albany, where he has done an awful job, and allow Giuliani to run in 2002 for governor, a post for which (unlike senator) he is actually suited. And then there is Peggy Noonan, who wrote the book on Mrs. Clinton (literally) and, unlike her, is a native New Yorker.