A model for Clinton - comparing Bill Clinton's tax policy to that of New Jersey Governor James Florio

National Review, May 24, 1993 by Brian Robertson

Misplaced Conciliation

NOW MANY are concerned that, through their efforts to get reelected, Republican legislators may be undermining attempts to unseat Florio this year. The conciliatory approach to this year's budget is a case in point. The legislature's approval ratings have been lower even than Florio's in the last few years, and many legislators think this is due to voter frustration over "gridlock." So rather than opposing Florio on new spending, even if they had to provoke a budget "crisis" in the process, Republicans have signed off on such items as a $250-million increase in school aid, even though New Jersey already spends more money per public-school student than any other state in the country. Any notion that there is a new spirit of belt-tightening in Trenton was dispelled when Florio recently admitted to hiring eight thousand new state workers in the last year, despite a hiring freeze and threats of massive layoffs if there were any more tax cuts. But instead of holding Florio to account on this, the GOP is linking itself with him just because he has gone up slightly in the polls.

All this puts the Republicans running for governor in the difficult position of having to explain why the GOP majority in the legislature has agreed to increase spending in the face of a substantial structural deficit (the only reason such shenanigans were even possible was the $450 million in disputed Medicaid reimbursements that President Clinton promptly delivered to Florio in payment for his services during the campaign). The leading contenders, Christine Todd Whitman and W. Cary Edwards, have both denounced the governor's tax-and-spend policies, but whether voters will take Republican attacks on Florio seriously after the legislature's dismal performance remains to be seen.

Mrs. Whitman is clearly the Republican to beat at this point, although she hasn't evoked much enthusiasm among the rank-and-file. In 1990 as a virtual unknown with almost no political experience, she had been chosen by the New Jersey Republican apparatus as a sacrificial lamb in the race against incumbent Senator Bill Bradley. In the event, she came within a whisker of beating him, causing her supporters to promote her as New Jersey's rising conservative star. However, the near-victory was a measure not of her popularity but of the intensity of the anti-Florio sentiment in the aftermath of the tax hike. Bradley attempted to steer clear of the tax controversy, refusing to denounce Florio outright, and the evasion was nearly enough to defeat him anyway.

The softness of Mrs. Whitman's support is apparent in the latest polls, which show her running almost 10 points behind Florio, even though voters would prefer "someone else" to Florio by about the same margin. Edwards fared even worse in the same poll. In other words, people would like to vote for someone other than Jim Florio, but not Christine Todd Whitman or Cary Edwards.

Precisely because she was considered a sure loser Mrs. Whitman underwent very little public scrutiny in 1990, but that is not the case in this year's campaign. Some of the dropoff in her numbers is due to her admission, one day after Zoe Baird, that she had employed an undocumented couple to care for her children for a period of three and a half years and had failed to pay their taxes. If she makes it through the primary, Mrs. Whitman has several other drawbacks, including the fact that she paid only $48 in property taxes on her 53-acre estate last year by getting it assessed as "farmland" because she owns a few cows. That might not sit too well with voters who pay some of the highest property taxes in the nation.