Heading South? - potential for Oliver North to win both the Republican nomination for Senate and the Virginia election in November 1994

National Review, May 30, 1994 by Rich Lowry

THE Ollie North mailer decries, "A record of higher taxes, bigger government, and cooperation with liberal special-interest groups." Typical GOP attack rhetoric--except the target was a Reagan budget director. "Jim Miller is throwing mud at Ollie North to hide his own record," it continues, depicting Miller as a closet supporter of the NEA and bi-lingual education.

The fact that money raised from conservative retirees in Minnesota (hit up for North contributions by Richard Viguerie) is spent smearing a Reagan loyalist is just one of the ironies in Virginia this year. Politics here has become such a burlesque that the U.S. Senate's weakest incumbent, Chuck Robb, leads his likely GOP opponent, North, by 17 points in polls.

When George Allen crushed Mary Sue Terry in last year's gubernatorial race, Republicans began to think again about the re-alignment they've sought for two decades. They were three seats away from taking both the state Senate and House. And the surviving Democrats were enacting parts of Allen's agenda pre-emptively. Republicans could smell a rout.

But now some Republicans talk of the party being torn apart. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato outlines a scenario in which the GOP could soon hold neither of the state's seats in the U.S. Senate--they'd go to independents--and fumble away a handful of vulnerable Democratic-held congressional seats. What happened?

The short answer: Ollie North. For three years North was a relentless party-builder, raising money for almost any GOP candidate who asked. As a result, the nomination to challenge Robb seemed his for the taking--until North took to the national airwaves (Larry King Live, Nightline) to announce his candidacy, subjecting himself to a brutal pounding. The Christian Coalition's Ralph Reed calls the appearances "ritualistic suicides." They helped "build a list" of nation-wide contributors, but at a price.

North sports unfavorable ratings higher than 50 per cent (with 100 per cent name recognition) and has been hovering at 33 per cent support or below in polls all year. The numbers have even conservatives nervous. "I think it's an uphill fight," says Mike Farris, the home-schooling advocate and last year's nominee for lieutenant governor. That's why there's an outside chance North could still lose the nomination.

The longer answer is that a cultural divide runs through the GOP, producing nasty county-level spats and dissension at the top. Establishment Republicans resent the activists--many unabashedly reigious--introduced into the party by Farris. The feeling is mutual. It's the "polyesters" against the "herring-bone suits," says Sabato. Or as Farris puts it, "There is a disenchantment with people who own polo ponies."

Chief pony-owner is Senator John Warner. He spurned Farris last year--possibly costing Farris his race--and is calling for an independent Republican "white knight" to run against North if he's nominated. Not popular moves among GOP activists. Warner now "has as much opportunity of being embraced by the Republicans," says Virginia Commonwealth University political scientist Robert Holsworth, "as Rush does by the ACLU." But Warner's popularity statewide is around 70 per cent. There's talk he'll run as an independent in 1996, which would be a new low in relations between the GOP's moderate and conservative wings.

By rights, the North-Miller race shouldn't have much to do with this feud. Miller, the Reagan Administration "no-man" on the budget, who actually saw the deficit decline on his watch, is just as conservative as North. Besides, it's North who ran the most "insider" White House operation since the Plumbers and owns a $1.17-million, 194-acre estate that would do John Warner proud.

But North excites the disaffected pick-up truck, gun-rack, work-boot crowd as few candidates can. He has parlayed criticisms from Reagan officials into proof that he is being dumped on by Washington insiders pushing their own agendas. Even the "I'm getting pretty steamed" Reagan letter missed its mark when the radioactive Warner announced its release at a press conference. Ollie's core just isn't going anywhere.

Except to the June 4 nominating convention. Common wisdom says North has it won. In rural areas especially, North does dominate. But no one knows how the 14,500 delegates, free to switch affiliation any time, will vote in the convention's secret ballot. Miller, weak in the southern reaches of the state, is strongest in delegaterich urban areas. So, even though everyone agrees North is ahead, handing him the nomination is premature.

Miller has none of the star power of North (he jokes that aides urged him to take his balding visage off his campaign literature), and few of the liabilities. His campaign lost steam in early April when, in a maladroit smear attempt of his own, he held a press conference meant to draw attention to North's brief psychiatric hospitalization, then revealed he too had seen a psychiatrist. Now Miller draws his message from polls showing him even with or ahead of Robb: Nominate the conservative who can win.