Lies, damned lies, and welfare reform - failure of Bill Clinton's proposals to reform public welfare - Editorial

National Review, July 11, 1994

In 1992, candidate Clinton boldly promised to "end welfare." Last week, President Clinton unveiled legislation to bring about the "end." Predictably, the plan fell a bit short.

He claims his reform will impose time limits on welfare; allegedly, individuals will receive cash aid for no more than two years. The claim is false. There will be no termination of cash benefits, whether the recipient has been on welfare for two years or twenty years. President Clinton's plan does require some who have received AFDC benefits for over two years to participate in a government make-work program resembling Jimmy Carter's ill-fated CETA. Individuals placed in this program will receive their welfare benefits in the guise of wages for "work" performed. They may remain in the work program indefinitely, and will continue to draw funds from the welfare system.

But if Mr. Clinton does not actually impose a time limit on welfare, at least he makes those on the dole for over two years work in exchange for future benefits - right? Wrong. Nearly half of the 4.9 million AFDC families have been on welfare continuously for over two years. At no time in the foreseeable future does Mr. Clinton propose to require work from more than a fraction of AFDC parents. The biggest loophole in his bill is that persons born before 1972 are exempt from work requirements. This pre-1972 population accounts for some 80 per cent of current parents on AFDC. But at least Mr. Clinton makes the younger mothers, born after 1972, work - right? Nope. Five years from now, only about one-third of the younger mothers who have received welfare for over two years will actually be required to work. Though the pace is glacial at least Mr. Clinton is moving toward work - right? Wrong again. Through the end of this century Mr. Clinton's law actually cuts the number of recipients required to work relative to existing law.

The bottom line: By the last year of this century, Mr. Clinton's reform will impose work requirements on only 6 per cent of all AFDC adults. This group will be required to work only 15 hours per week. Once food and medical benefits in the average state are added in, total compensation will amount to about $15 for each hour "worked."

Bad as Mr. Clinton's plan is on work it is worse on spending. Federal, state, and local spending on the welfare system last year amounted to $325 billion. Without any change in law, spending would rise to over $500 billion in 1998. In that year, the U. S. would be spending $2 on welfare for every $1 on national defense, and nearly $5,000 for each taxpaying U.S. household.

Mr. Clinton's response to this spending explosion is, of course, to spend more. And despite his protestations that he will pay for proposed spending increases through cuts in other programs, his plan is not deficit neutral. He intends to exploit a technicality in federal budget law which requires that the fiscal impact of proposed legislation be estimated for only five years into the future. In the past, a liberal Congress has invisibly hiked spending by creating entitlements that would come into effect six or seven years in the future. Taking a leaf from this book, President Clinton calls for tens of billions in new welfare entitlements that are "off budget" because they come into effect beyond the year 2000.

Finally, Mr. Clinton's plan ignores the root of the welfare crisis: exploding rates of illegitimacy. On this score, the President deserves some credit for rhetoric. He has truthfully told the voters that illegitimacy is a principal cause of crime; that welfare promotes illegitimacy; and that unless something dramatic is done, soon half of all American children will be born out of wedlock. After this vigorous New Democrat windup, however, he refuses to pitch the ball. Except for hypocritical chatter about encouraging teen abstinence (while HHS Secretary Donna Shalala is seeking to abolish the only federal program that counsels it), the plan draws a big zero on combatting family disintegration. But the foundation of real welfare reform must be to get the government out of the business of subsidizing illegitimacy. Without that, all other reforms are meaningless.

Mr. Clinton and other liberals understand that the public is utterly fed up with welfare. Consequently, periodic sham reform has become crucial to propping up the moribund system. Readers may remember that Congress "ended welfare" back in 1988. But with more than a million children born out of wedlock each year, the situation is now worse than in 1988. Our society cannot afford yet another welfare-reform fraud. But a fraud is exactly what President Clinton's plan is.