Letter from Al

National Review, Sept 28, 1998

September 6, 1998

Dear Rusty,

Need some help here. Tipper and I are going nuts trying to figure this all out. Tell us what you think:

Scenario 1: ''Limited Modified Hang Loose.'' We play it cool. I continue to support the President, though Tipper is described as ''privately appalled and deeply angry.'' She acts chilly to him in public. I look like a loyal friend caught in a bind. Bill hangs on to the Presidency, I serve as a go-between with the moderate wing. Upside: This is pretty much what I had planned on all along, and has the added benefit of being true. Downside: We'll probably go down in flames in November's mid-terms, and I'll get blamed. All in all, I think this is the worst-case scenario. Except for . . .

Scenario 2: ''Whose Line Is It Anyway?'' Possibly the worst-case scenario, now that I think of it. (Well, I guess the worst case is if Janet Reno appoints a special prosecutor to look into the whole campaign-finance mess. But by the time that happens, Tipper and I figure, I'll probably be President and the country will be rallying behind the new most ethical Administration in history.) The fallout from the Lewinsky thing gets worse, and the airwaves are filled with sanctimonious, pious hand-wringers droning on and on about morality and truth. Which, to be fair, is my act. It'll be hard to work up the normal amount of piety when I've got to be defending the President. It'll be impossible to talk about policy issues being ''for the children'' if we've got a President chasing them around the White House study. And if I can't describe things as being ''for the children,'' then I don't know what I'll do, which brings me to . . .

Scenario 3: ''Here Come the Scolds.'' Then again, this scenario isn't great. It involves all those guys out there, the Liebermans and the Nunns and the Bradleys, getting big points for scolding the President (something, need I remind you, that I'm not in any position to do). So now Bob Kerrey steps in and swings a few late kicks. The press loves the whole ''We're shocked and appalled and morally indignant'' act. They look stern and mature and . . . let's face it, presidential. One or two of them thinks to himself, ''Well, since everyone is telling me how presidential I look, it must be true. So why not actually be President?'' During the primaries, instead of mopping up the floor with Dick Gephardt's sorry little attempt, I get squeezed on the right and on the left, and suddenly I'm the Lamar Alexander of the Democratic Party. Tipper thinks this is the most likely scenario, and that Bill Bradley is the most likely one to, as she puts it, ''eat my lunch.'' Personally, though, I'm more worried about . . .

Scenario 4: ''Many More Monicas.'' Turns out she wasn't the only intern. When the 3M revelations hit, sometime after Bob Woodward gets back from East Hampton, the Administration is rocked by scandal. Bill holds on for a while, but eventually resigns under protest. I take over just in time to face a filibuster-proof Republican Senate and a strengthened Republican House. And you just know that when Bill and Hillary go, they won't go quietly. No padding around San Clemente and maintaining a dignified silence. Oh no. There'll be interviews and Geraldo exclusives and public second-guessing about President-Gore-should-do-this and President-Gore-should-do-that. So between a recalcitrant Congress and a shadow President, how on earth am I going to, well, save the earth? Though as much as I dread Scenario 4, I think I should be more concerned about . . .

Scenario 5: ''I.P.O. and an I.O.U.'' The Lewinsky thing simmers. Starr issues his report. The House votes for censure. Things die down. Bob Rubin resigns, just in time to re-assume his position at Goldman, Sachs, just in time to participate in Goldman's initial public offering, which itself comes just in time to beat the stock-market crash (caused, in part, by Rubin's absence from Treasury, and a Wall Street Journal article entitled ''Whither Treasury? Disarray in a Once Well-Oiled Machine''), which ushers in a mild recession, which lasts until November of 2000, which is just what happened to George Bush Sr. in 1992 and what will now happen to me, which means that George Bush Jr. gets to be President. Okay, okay, I know I've said it before, but this time I mean it: this is absolutely, positively the worst worst worst case.

Write soon, Rusty. Tipper and I need to talk to someone we can trust. Also, we can't really afford Dick Morris this early in the process. What I need is a Scenario 6: ''The Happy Ending.'' Got any ideas?

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