Lying with statistics: efforts to discredit the economic achievements of the 1980s just don't add up

National Review, Oct 14, 1996 by Alan Reynolds

6. Make assertions about facts without bothering to mention any facts. Lawrence Chimerine of the Economic Strategy Institute wrote "The Return of the Supply-Siders" in the Washington Post, July 23. Chimerine said, "The personal savings rate dropped to a postwar record low, and the overall national savings rate dropped even more sharply." The personal savings rate averaged 6.2 per cent from 1983 to 1989, compared with 4.2 per cent from 1993 to date. The national savings rate averaged 17.2 per cent from 1983 to 1989, compared with 14.6 per cent from 1993 to 1995. Chimerine wrote that "Productivity growth was extremely weak in the 1980s." But productivity growth averaged 1.6 per cent a year from 1983 to 1989, compared with 0.5 per cent since 1993. Chimerine also wrote that "the rate of job growth was little improved from the 1970s." Yet the figure shows that rapid job growth lasted twice as long in the 1980s, and far exceeded Clinton's record. In short, Chimerine's assertions about facts are not facts.

7. Compare the growth rate in a single quarter (the second quarter of 1996) with the average of 1983 - 89. Partisans are trying to make a big deal out of the 4.8 per cent annualized growth of GDP in the second quarter (thanks in large part to a burst of government spending). Yet quarterly growth was faster than 4.8 per cent eight times between 1983 and 1989. Besides, big-quarter GDP figures tell us nothing about the future. In the first quarter of 1973, the growth rate was 11 per cent. In the first quarter of 1981, the growth rate was 8 per cent. Those impressive quarterly figures were immediately followed by nasty recessions.

Apologists for high tax rates have become almost comical in their arrogant ignorance even by the low standards of election years. They should be ashamed.