Watching the dragon: as China's military and economic strength increases, the United States must keep an eye on the Far East

National Review, Oct 14, 1996 by Franklin L. Lavin

We should avoid allowing matters to degenerate into a test of wills between the two nations. We should preserve a relationship with China in areas which promise mutual benefit, such as commercial relations and perhaps cooperation on North Korea.

An engaged United States is needed in the region if China's thrusts are to be countered. Only the United States can serve as a balancer to China's interests, because only the United States is widely viewed as a benign, or relatively disinterested, power in the region. The regional powers -- Japan, India, and Russia -- are inappropriate to the task, either because of their historical legacy or because of their lack of power-projection capability. Conversely, a reduction of the U.S. presence in the region tells the smaller powers: Hurry to reach an accommodation with China, because the United States will not serve as the guarantor of peace.

What are China's motives? It does not necessarily matter. A country in a position of superiority does not need pre-existing motives to assert itself; its sheer weight and the perception of that weight by others are intrinsically assertive. Once China establishes a dominant position in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Straits, it will not matter much what its original goals might have been.

It is also true that in a closed political system such as China's, there are few internal inhibitions on political behavior. An ambitious regional policy, once in place, will take on its own momentum because the Chinese system has an accelerator but no brake. There will be no legislative hearings in China over the new policy, no budget questions, and of course no skeptical newspaper editorials. Only an outside force has a chance of effecting a modification. The best way to help China follow a responsible course is to take away the option for irresponsible action.

Conflict and crises in international affairs often spring from minor, initially almost unnoticed, events. Failure to detect and respond to such minor challenges permits those challenges to mutate into more dangerous issues. China's recent behavior is little more than mischievous in the South China Sea and only somewhat reckless in the Taiwan Straits. But if it meets no resistance -- and the United States is the only country that can offer effective resistance -- the mischief-making could become deadly serious.

For most of the last two centuries China has been acted upon by foreign states, sometimes in a disgraceful fashion. Weak and fragmented, China was unable to counter the demands for special privileges, the imposition of unequal treaties and extra-territoriality, the establishment of quasi-colonial relations and outright colonies.

In the next century, China will act, rather than being acted upon. It would be unfortunate in the extreme -- for its neighbors and for the international system -- if China behaves toward its neighbors as Western great powers have behaved toward it. And it would be unfortunate for China itself if, instead of assuming a leadership role in the family of nations, it were consigned to the margins as an international bully.