Rising stars - new conservative leaders - Cover Story

National Review, Dec 23, 1996 by Robert D. Novak

While no heir apparent has been identified, new leaders are beginning to appear in conservative ranks.

FOR the first time in 36 years, there is nobody in line for the next Republican presidential nomination. In fact, nobody has stepped up to become the clear political leader of the conservative movement since Ronald Reagan left the White House.

But these are not dismal tidings for conservatism. The Right has impressive bench strength -- new figures without national reputations and unlikely to be presidential contenders in 2000, but effective and principled potential leaders for the future.

At the suggestion of NR's editors, I have selected five conservatives to keep an eye on. Since their selection is nothing if not arbitrary, I set four arbitrary rules for picking them.

1) No household names; they must not be people widely recognized. 2) No noble losers, but rather people who win elections. 3) No moderates; bona fide conservatives only. 4) No political correctness mandating diversity (which regrettably ends up with no women on the bench).

Michigan Gov. John Engler, Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, and Missouri Sen. John Ashcroft have been around a shade too long to qualify. Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson are attractive and effective, but the conservatism of each has yet to be proved. George's brother Jeb is surely conservative enough; both he and Indianapolis Mayor Stephen Goldsmith would qualify had they not lost races for governor, in Florida and Indiana, respectively.

Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt, Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating, Michigan Sen. Spence Abraham, and Oklahoma Reps. Steve Largent and J. C. Watts were just nosed out by these five:

Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas; University of California Regent Ward Connerly; California Attorney General Dan Lungren; Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania; Rep. Billy Tauzin of Louisiana.

And here is a "junior varsity" of promising conservatives at state and local levels:

Raleigh (N.C.) Mayor Tom Fetzer; Pennsylvania Attorney General Mike Fisher; Colorado State Treasurer Bill Owens; Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate; Illinois State Sen. Steve Rauschenberger.

Sam Brownback, 40, Garnett, Kan.: Thanks to Robert J. Dole's resignation, Brownback became the first of the famous House freshman class of 1994 to advance to the Senate.

The road was not easy. Kansas may have been the most consistently Republican state over the past generation, but it did not send movement conservatives to Washington -- until Sam Brownback.

A farmboy turned lawyer, Brownback served for six years as secretary of the Kansas Board of Agriculture and as a White House fellow in 1990 - 91 -- long enough to convince him the Federal Government is much too big.

His 1994 run for Congress, his first attempt at elective office, was against Democrat John Carlin, a former two-term governor. Embracing the Contract with America, Brownback won 66 per cent of the vote and carried every county in his district.

Brownback ignored Sam Rayburn's advice that House newcomers should be seldom seen and never heard. He quickly formed the New Federalists, 14 rookie Republicans dedicated to slashing government.

By the time Dole resigned from the Senate this June, Brownback had become disillusioned with House Republican leadership. He now had a shot at a Senate seat in a new kind of Senate -- with Trent Lott as Majority Leader and conservatives such as himself replacing the Doles and the Hatfields.

But first he had to face what he calls "The Machine" -- the Kansas Republican establishment. Gov. Bill Graves, a moderate, pro-choice Republican, filled the Dole vacancy by naming his lieutenant governor, Sheila Frahm, a dependable organization politician who is pro-choice and anti-term-limits, and who refused to sign a federal no-tax-increase pledge.

Mrs. Frahm began the primary campaign with a huge lead over Brownback. But Brownback, strongly supported by religious conservatives, tapped voters newly converted to the Republican Party and won -- easily.

Next he faced a formidable opponent with the most prestigious Democratic name in Kansas: Jill Docking, who ran as a fiscally conservative businesswoman appealing to establishment Republicans who were turned off by Brownback's support from the Religious Right.

When Mrs. Docking led in some polls, a number of political reporters were prepared to deplore the Republican folly of losing a safe seat by turning to an extremist. But Brownback won -- again, easily. Kansas has its first bona fide conservative senator in four decades.

Ward Connerly, 57, Sacramento, Calif.: Connerly is in a different category from the others. Although he is undoubtedly a Republican and a conservative, whether he will be a national leader is a matter of considerable doubt.

The doubt does not stem from Connerly's appeal. This black businessman awed conservatives with his courage and eloquence in leading the fight for the California Civil Rights Initiative. The question is whether, having experienced the rancid swamps of politics, he wants to get in any deeper.