Congress II - expected legislation on capital gains tax, child care and the environment

JUST WHEN YOU thought it was safe to come back to Washington, there's Congress II. The thriller resumes on January 23, when the most pressing issues will be the cut in capital-gains taxes, child care, and the environment.

In the Senate, Majority Leader George Mitchell has made the environment the first order of business. As one would expect of any bill with a nice-sounding title and the President's support the "Clean Air Bill" sailed through committee (15 to 1). But there was little discussion of what (if any) benefits will justify the $90-bllion price tag. One of its architects, White House Counsel C. Boyden Gray, confessed that "a lot of the cost/benefit analyis I normally demand to see hasn't been done." Apparently, that's no hindrance, and the whire elephant will probably become law early next year.

Senator Mitchell's disposition to help the President suddenly evaporated, however, when it came to taxes. Almost single-handedly, the Majority Leader stopped President Bush's bid to cut capital-gains taxes. He did this by adroit manipulation of procedure and by making the vote a loyalty test for Democrats. Even so, the Republicans got a majority in favor of the cuts. Given that the House has also voted in favor of these cuts, increased White House pressure would probably be enough to get them through next time around.

Finally, the Republic has been spared an expensive and pernicious child-care bill only because of feuding within the Democratic Party. Congress passed three different child-care proposals (one in the Senate and two in the House) none of which met President Bush' criterion of a non-bureaucratic approach based on the family. Negotiations on a compromise bogged down because two House committees couldn't agree over which would get jurisdiction. On top of all of this, serious differences sitll persist between the Senate and House versions over funding for religious day-care centers and tax credits for mothers who stay home. A new child-care bill is inevitable next year, and by adroit manipulation of his veto, President Bush could ensure that it's a good one.

1989 began badly for the President, with humiliating losses on the Tower and Lucam nominations. But it ended with the White House winning on points. President Bush got through the year without a tax increase, and on his major issue, capital gains, he placed himself in good position for a win the next time around. But some of the more significant Republican victories were won without help from the White House. In the repeals of the catastrophic-illness bill and Section 89 (a regulation that would have required employers to provide bottom-level employees with the same benefits as executives), the Presdient was not involved at all. But the stakes have been raised and the Democrats are now out for blood. Without the kind of vigorous leadership President Bush gave on capital gains and a willingness to make enemies on the Hill, he might find that the 1990 sequel will have a sadder ending.