And what about the DoD? - Department of Defense budget cuts

BIG DEFENSE CUTS are coming. That assumes, of course, that the Soviet Union continues to pursue perestroika, that the Eastern Europeans finish dismantling their Communist Parties, and that no new war (a la Iran-Iraq) erupts to remind us that history has not ended. Still, those assmptions are reasonable, and, like it or not, that means unstoppable popular and congressional pressure for defense cuts.

There are three ways of effecting such cuts. The first and worst is to nibble away at the budget by slowing down weapons programs, deferring pay raises, suspending new construction, and offering a prominent program or two as a sacrifice to propitate the gods of economy. This was tried in the 1970s, and it resulted in what one Army chief of staff called the "hollow Army"--an armed force undermanned and poorly manned, low on spare parts, ammunition, training funds, and above all morale. It took eight years to undo the damage.

The second way, which is the most likely given Pentagon politics, is to distribute the pain among the armed services--taking an equal percentage out of the hide of each, so that none will feel discriminated against. The result would be a force structure like the one we have now, but smaller. This would be fine if out strategic needs were simply smaller rather than different, but they're not.

The third and smartest solution is to use the cuts as an opportunity to rethink why we need a military at all. The Soviet empire is crumbling, and the Soviet economy seems more decrepit than we had ever imagined. But new threats are emerging--Third World powers armed with the latest in modern technology, including surface-to-surface missiles, nerve gas, and, all too soon, nuclear weapons.

What principles should govern our strategic reassessment? First, cut forces asymmetrically. We will need a far smaller Army than we have gotten used to, but since we will remain a global power we want a large Navy and Air Force and a capable Marine Corps. Second, push high-tech research and development including SDI, even at the expense of modernization across the board. To deal with increasingly sophisticated Third World opponents we want the decisive edge provided by weapons like stealth fighters and bombers and long-range cruise missiles. And if the competition with the Soviets heats up again we want to have a head start. Third, think mobilization. For decaded the armed forces have thought about a come-as-you-are war: in the future they may be called upon to expand fast to meet a resurgent Soviet or other opponent. Fourth, invest in intelligence. The world has become more uncertain rather than less, and we need expertise on a host of countries--India and Iraq, for example--to which we have paid too little attention. It's time to think strategy, not budget games.