Bread & circuses - 1996 Electoral College forecast heavily favors Republicans

National Review, Feb 12, 1996 by Kate O'Bierne

WHILE Washington Republicans feel trapped in a demoralizing blizzard of negative poll numbers and public-relations snowdrifts, their party's beyond-the-Beltway leaders are basking in the news they heard this month at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting in San Diego. Despite rainy weather and an unsightly venue (the convention center, where the party will nominate its candidate this summer, disappointingly resembles a huge garage), nothing could dampen the spirits of the 160 party officials who look forward to returning in August and making history in November. A Republican President has not been elected to serve with an incumbent Republican Congress since 1924. Party leaders believe they have the message and the map to make a comparable sweep next fall.

In November, Bill Clinton could win Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., West Virginia, Arkansas (bear with me here), Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii -- and still lose the White House. Republican demographer John Morgan rattled off this list to an incredulous audience that begged him to repeat and explain. Morgan, who handled voter analysis for the Reagan White House, flatly stated, "I don't see how Clinton can mathematically win in a two-way race."

Morgan's explanation of how tough it will be for Bill Clinton to put together 270 electoral votes is convincing. He dismisses the current national polls that are giving some Republicans the jitters. He explains that the public hasn't yet thought much about the coming elections, and the too-small samples are generally not of likely voters. He points out that these national polls do not track with state polls. Morgan concentrates on the previous election's results as the only "reality" worth analyzing. Election data tell him that a conservative GOP candidate begins with a base of 200 electoral votes. He believes the 70 extra votes needed to win will be fairly easy to capture.

Morgan puts Louisiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Tennessee, if not firmly in the Republican column, still "probably outside the reach of the Democrats." He thinks that Bill Clinton has less than a fifty - fifty chance of winning California (his victory there in 1992 was the only time in the last seven elections that the GOP lost California). Many of the states Clinton desperately needs, like Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New York, and Illinois, have Republican governors and party structures that have not been available to GOP presidential campaigns in the past. With RNC Chairman Haley Barbour reminding his state leaders that there is not a national election this year, but rather 51 state campaigns for President, Morgan asserts that the electoral map so favors the GOP, "it's just a matter of picking a running-mate who delivers a few states." His map reading tells him that the "smart play" would be a Catholic Midwesterner as Veep. John Engler, check your voice mail.

Even before John Morgan had played the Engler card, the RNC meeting was abuzz with speculation about the vice-presidential pick. Although the state party officials appeared to be roughly divided between the Dole and Gramm camps for the top slot, conservatives resigned to a Dole candidacy are determined that "the Bush mistake" of 1980 not be repeated this August. Conservatives who see a Dole Presidency as a placeholder, postponing a conservative realignment until 2000, want to ensure that a conservative is first in line for the nomination then. Morgan's picture of Republican electoral strength this year makes them even less willing to cede the heir-apparent slot to a "moderate" for the purpose of strengthening the ticket. If the GOP is already strong anyway, why reach out to the wimps? Colin Powell, don't sell your house.

Along with the determination that there be a thoroughly conservative running-mate, a clear campaign theme for the November race emerged from the San Diego meeting. The irrepressible John Kasich got a standing ovation when he vowed that the congressional GOP would not be party to a phony balanced-budget deal. These Republicans appeared confident that they can help their battle-weary Washington comrades make the case that Bill Clinton has blocked a balanced budget, tax cuts, and welfare reform. They plan to run against the "Say Anything, Do Nothing" President Clinton. Voters will be asked to re-elect congressional Republicans who have kept all their promises and replace an untrustworthy President who has broken all of his. The January issue of Esquire magazine -- in which Senator Bob Kerrey declares, "Clinton's an unusually good liar. Unusually good," was a sell-out in the hotel gift shop.

These Republicans, immune to Washington's conventional wisdom, believe that there will be sufficient time over the coming months to counteract the $20-million false advertising campaign the Democrats and their allies have waged against entitlements and tax reform. They are convinced that their top agenda items remain popular with the public, who will also support the GOP's Medicare reform plan when they have properly understood it. The man from Hope who came to Washington as an agent of change who could get things done will be portrayed as a liberal defender of the status quo who is gumming up the works like a blind traffic cop -- "President Gridlock."