At stake in Nicaragua - Nicaraguan elections

National Review, March 5, 1990

At Stake in Nicaragua

THE NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS will not be fair. The Sandinistas have put the entire machinery of the one-party state at the service of their campaign. The Sandinista television monopoly is relentless. The political police have intimidated campaign organizers in rural areas. Commissars in state factories and farms warn workers that they will lose their jobs if they vote for UNO, the coalition of Violeta Chamorro. The regime has prevented thousands of people registering in UNO'S strongholds.

Nevertheless, the Sandinistas have been maneuvered into accepting elections that are sufficiently open to allow the will of the people to be expressed. Nicaragua will be under a microscope on February 25, and massive fraud will be impossible. Determined enough, the people can throw the Sandinistas out.

The Bush Administration and the Grand Press seem to have concluded, however, that Nicaraguans are satisfied with Sandinismo after all, that they will vote for "continuismo" in spite of the debacle of the last ten years. Now, it is true that the Sandinistas still have a bloc of emotional support, and that Daniel Ortega is personally respected even by Nicaraguans who hate the regime. But the conventional wisdom in Washington that the Sandinistas have the election sewn up is totally wrong. It seems to be based on polls, notably the January poll by the Boston firm Greenberg-lake giving Ortega a 27 point lead over Violeta Chamorro. Needless to say, it is impossible to poll opposition sentiment accurately in a quasi-totalitarian country where there is pervasive fear of repression. It is hilarious to read the meticulous analysis in the Greenberg report which might well be talking about Denmark.

If Violeta Chamorro wins, it will be in spite of the ineptitude of the State Department, which held up $1.8 million in campaign funds for over a month. Miraculously, her eclectic coalition has held together avoiding a fatal-and expected-split in the opposition vote. Dona Violeta has proved to be the right candidate. Everybody knows that she is a simple woman, far out of her depth, but it hardly matters. She has become a symbol, above politics. Consequently, however, her government risks degenerating into factionalism and bickering within days. Moreover, its chief economist, Francisco Mayorga, is an unreconstructed Keynesian who seems to think he can solve hyper-inflation by increasing demand. He has learned little from Peru and Argentina. The Bush Administration must use its influence, as tactfully as possible, to put a stop to such foolishness.

The great problem will be what to do with the army and the security forces, both extensions of the Sandinista Party. There is much talk in Managua of a Polish arrangement, but the Administration should not encourage such a compromise. Nicaragua is not Poland where there is such a thing as a civilian Communist Party. The Sandinista front is essentially a military organization. It cannot be left intact. If Violeta Chamorro wins she must seize the moment, decapitate the army and dismember, limb by limb, the interior ministry of Tomas Borge. The Sandinistas must be forced to choose between defeat and a military coup, which would doom them forever.