Clinton's revelation - how and why Bill Clinton needs to appeal to Southern Baptists

National Review, March 7, 1994 by Rich Lowry

The evangelical vote, notes University of Akron political scientist John Green, is as central to the Republican coalition as the black vote is to the Democratic. In these voting blocs relatively small losses hit with a double force. If Republicans won just 25 to 30 per cent of the black vote, says Green, "they'd be winning all over the place." So too with Clinton and the evangelicals, especially the closer he can creep to the 40 per cent mark (although mid 30s is probably his ceiling). "That's a prime Republican constituency," says Green, "and he'll be cutting it off at the knees."

The irony is that Clinton has co-opted the family-values rhetoric and made inroads among evangelicals precisely because many Republicans now believe both are losers. Says the Family Research Council's Gary Bauer: "The White House is scared to death they're on the wrong side [of these issues], the Republicans are scared they may be on the right side." Thwarting the family-values onslaught means not being timid on issues where, objectively, Republicans are in a position of strength. "At the end of the day," says Bill Kristol, "deeds speak louder than words."

There's this much comfort in Clinton's new rhetorical tack: "Clinton's hypocrisy," as Kristol says, "is the tribute liberalism is paying to conservatism." But if they're not careful, Republicans will get complimented all the way into a Clinton second term.