The era of good feeling

National Review, March 9, 1998 by Kate O'Beirne

ROMANCE is in the air. The public has fallen head over heels in love -- with Washington. The President isn't the only one enjoying record high job approval ratings. For the first time in over 25 years, a majority of the public approves of the job Congress is doing. Conservatives should be doubly dismayed. The public views the President favorably -- even though they believe he's committed adultery and lied about it. And they give Congress high marks --even though taxes and government spending are at record highs.

What gives? The good economy, shrinking deficit, and lack of partisan rancor between Congress and the President have benefitted both. A scandal-weary public is responding like parents whose squabbling offspring have finally quieted down; they no longer care who "started it," they just want to enjoy the peace and quiet. Sixty-three per cent of the public believe that the country is headed in the right direction. Even our rear-view mirror has a rosy tint -- George Bush raised taxes and lost his bid for re-election, but 74 per cent now approve of the job he did.

The President's positive favorability rating has returned to what it was at the beginning of the year, but Congress's jumped by 17 points while it was in recess during the month of January. Not bad for not working. The Clinton scandal drew attention back to Washington, and Congress too gets high marks for the way the nation seems on an even keel.

For its part, Washington's reaction to the high public approval of President Clinton ranges from perplexed to dismayed. As Bob Dole --whose current claim to fame is that he's a Watergate neighbor of Monica Lewinsky -- would put it, "Where's the outrage?"

It may be lurking just beneath the surface. A majority of the public believes that Bill Clinton had a sexual relationship with Miss Lewinsky and lied about it. But only 25 per cent of the public both think he's guilty of an improper relationship and approve of his job performance.

Clinton's base is among the credulous. Ninety per cent of those who don't believe he had an affair approve of the job he is doing. So, it is reasonable to assume that if more people become convinced that the affair took place, the President's job approval ratings will fall.

Then, we could start to see a convergence between the President's low personal approval ratings and his job performance. Now people may think he's a big creep, but that isn't reflected in their evaluation of his work -- there is a 24-point gap between Clinton's personal and his job approval ratings.

GOP pollster John McLaughlin marvels at the White House's "masterful public relations campaign to divert attention from the scandal to job performance." He points out that since the State of the Union address, the Administration has consistently told the public what a good job the President is doing.

But McLaughlin sees a long-term vulnerability for the President owing to his weak personal popularity and the public's misgivings about his character. If it is established that the President has lied about the Lewinsky affair, "there will be no second chances, there is no good will in his personal numbers."

For now, the public is ambivalent about the allegations. The President benefits from an abiding loyalty to his office, with 66 per cent of the public believing that it is important to support him until the facts are better known. On the other hand, 57 per cent want the Independent Counsel investigation halted -- so much for the facts becoming better known.

People frequently don't care to know an uncomfortable truth, and will respond negatively to those who force them to confront it --like the media and Ken Starr. At the moment, the White House's three-year investment in discrediting Starr is paying off more handsomely than Mrs. Clinton's cattle futures.

The public was never much interested in a complicated land deal from the Gennifer Flowers days, and the D'Amato, Clinger, Thompson, and Burton hearings into past scandals have all been successfully spun as "partisan attacks." If the public didn't think there was sufficient justification to merit past investigations, it is not surprising that they consider Ken Starr just the latest example of a predatory partisan out to get our predatory President.

SOME public attitudes are more difficult to explain. A CNN/ Gallup poll found that while only 55 per cent of the public believe that Bill Clinton had a sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky, 62 per cent believe that he has had sex with a woman other than Lewinsky or his wife since becoming President. But they also believe that committing adultery is downright presidential. Fifty-nine per cent believe that most Presidents had extramarital affairs, and three-quarters find Bill Clinton's faults to be no worse than those of his predecessors.

A large majority still believe that a President can't be an effective leader without strong moral values -- in the abstract. In the concrete case of Bill Clinton -- although fewer than one in four people would like their children to look up to him as a role model -- two-thirds think he's doing a fine job.