Gephardt's gambit

National Review, April 5, 1985 by John J. McLaughlin

STILL IN the political intensive-care until, the Democratic Party is looking for oxygen wherever it can find it. The telegenic and talented 44-year-old five-term Missouri congressman Richard Gephardt, now in his third month as Caucus Chairman (the fourth-ranking Democratic leadership post), is helping Democrats breathe a little easier. Gephardt's ongoing claim to fame is the Bradly-Gephardt "Fair Tax," which would limit income taxes to "14 per cent for four out of five Americans," he says. The bill is one leg of the tax-reform triad that, with the Kemp-Kasten and Regan/Treasury versions, will doubtless be amalgamated into some kind of tax-reform blancmange before 1985 is over.

Besides tax reform, Gephardt is increasingly in the limelight for his efforts to modernize the party. With Governors Charles Robb (Va.) and Bruce Babbitt (Ariz.), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Tony Coelho (Calif.), and Senator Sam Nunn (Ga.), Gephardt has formed the Democratic Leadership Council to try to inject fresh ideas and imagery into the ailing party, an ambitious effort probably destined for failure. In the House, Gephardt is effective at fuzzing his positions. "I don't believe in voting from a pigeonhole saying I'm a conservative or I'm a liberal," says Gephardt earnestly. "I believe in deciding issues on their merits."

Skeptics note, however, that his ADA (liberal) rating stood at 35 per cent shortly after he entered Congress and at 75 per cent last year, suggesting that besides merits Mr. Gephardt also keeps a weather eye on partisan politics. Yet Gephardt has voted against school busing, against abortion, and for poison gas (Monsanto and Mallinckrodt are both in his district, but he denies the votes were so dictated). On the other hand, Gephardt also voted in favor of the Chrysler bailout, in favor of domestic auto content (both of which pleased auto workers in his district), and in favor of the nuclear freeze.

To give you an idea of how fast is the track that Gephardt now runs on, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (his hometown paper) published a story in late February under a screamer front-page headline, "Gephardt Tests Presidential Waters," wherein evidence was disclosed pointing to genuine presidential intent on the part of the affable, sure-footed Mr. Gephardt. One indication that he is going national is his international travel. "I've been to the Soviet Union twice. I've been to the Middle East. I've been to Japan," he told me. In February, he visited Central America (including Managua) and, although somewhat critical of President Reagan, he voiced approval of the use of military force as an "ultimate" resource to contain Communism.

Some younger Democrats are sure that Gephardt will go for it. "He's struggling with the decision right now," says fried and fellow Central American junketeer Representative Mike Synar (D., Okla.). Representative Dick Durbin (D., Ill.) declares flat out that Gephardt is "a serous contestant" for 1988. The congressman himself brushes off such presidential whispers with "they flatter me" or some such. Yet, right after his interview with me, he flew up to snowy New Hampshire to give two political speeches.

GEPHARDT'S game plan is unclear, as is not unusual with him. In 1982, Gephardt kicked around the idea of running for the Senate seat of Republican John Danforth, but decided against it, calculating that Danforth was too strong. In the event, Danforth barely held on to the seat against a relatively weak opponent, feminist Harriet Woods, so it might have been ripe for Gephardt's plucking.

As 1988 approaches, Gephardt has three short-term options. First, he could run for the retiring Tom Eagleton's Senate seat in 1986. The problem here is that he would be starting behind the two-term Republican ex-governor, Kit Bond, who is already campaigning and is better known in Missouri. Second, Gephardt could challenge Jim Wright for the Speakership in 1986; Wright's support is regarded as "soft." But such a gambit would be dangerous: Not only would Gephardt be risking the animosity of many older House Democrats resentful of the youthful interloper, but other powerful and respected veterans such as Tom Foley (Wash.) and Dan Rostenkowski (Ill.) will probably be in the Speakership race. Last, and most likely, Gephardt could stand pat, hoping that his prominence as a tax and party reformer will catch the eye of Democratic kingmakers.

As for the presidential sweepstakes, what is Gephardt's potential? "If you look to the non-labor, non-black wing of the party," says a Democratic savant who prowls the Hill, "and you frame the contest in terms of blacks and labor against non-blacks and non-labor, and then you add up Glenn, Askew, and Hollings, and then you toss in the later-Hart yuppies--why Gephardt can do it: His appeal can reach into this pieced-together constituency and grab it." Cuomo, says the savant, is right when he states he doesn't have the "persona" for the run. Also, if you believe Cuomo's Democratic Convention speech, he stands to the left of Teddy, and that of itself rules him out. As for Hart, Besides not having yet produced the beef, he has too much personal baggage, including his on-again, off-again marriage, Indian princess Marilyn Young-bird, and the still unexplained revampings of age, name, and signature.