The Dawn of the Second Cold War

Progressive, The, May, 2001

The U.S. face-off with China over the collision of a Chinese F-8 fighter and a U.S. spy plane may be a sign of things to come, but it sure seemed like a blast from the past.

This is Gary Powers and his U-2 all over again. Except this time, the Cold War enemy is China. But Russia may not be left out. U.S. relations with Moscow are also in a time warp, as the recent spy scandal and general chill indicate.

The Bush Administration is so full of bluster and belligerence that it might start a Cold War with both Russia and China at the same time. Old Cold Warriors never die, they just grab power in Washington, and that's what Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld are doing. George W. is just their nervous little messenger boy.

But he's delivering a dangerous message.

The contretemps over the plane crash must be seen in the context of worsening U.S. relations with China over the last year. The causes: Star Wars, U.S. aid for Taiwan, and a reorientation of military strategy by both Washington and Beijing.

Bush's eagerness to expand and deploy nuclear missile defense threatens China's national security. Today, China has only twenty nuclear missiles that can hit the United States. Beijing views this small arsenal as a deterrent against attack by the United States. But if Bush deploys the shield, China would feel vulnerable. Even if the shield were not 100 percent effective, China could no longer have a reliable deterrent. Especially because the United States could use Star Wars not as missile defense but as missile offense: as an integral part of a first-strike attack. If the United States wanted to attack China, it would launch a first strike to destroy as many of China's stockpiled weapons as it could find. Then the missile defense system could knock down almost all of the rest. Since China has so few to start with, missile defense would enable the United States to attack China with impunity.

"We have no intention of being the innocent party. We want to be the aggressor," says Robert Bowman, president of the Institute for Space and Security Studies, based in Melbourne Beach, Florida. Bowman was director of advanced space programs development for the Air Force during the Ford and Carter Administrations. "Star Wars has nothing to do with defense. It's about maintaining absolute military superiority by developing new offensive weapons in the guise of defense."

China's military experts are keenly aware of this. "What China worries about is losing its deterrent capability," Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Qinghua University, told The New York Times in January. "The United States says this is a defensive system, but everyone knows it will be used to strengthen your offensive capability. It protects your troops so you can attack any time without fear of retribution."

Star Wars ties directly into U.S. policy toward Taiwan. "Some missile defense advocates," a February article in The Wall Street Journal said, "see China as the real threat. Their biggest fear isn't of a direct attack but of nuclear blackmail, in which China might try to deter the U.S. from coming to the defense of Taiwan by threatening to attack American cities." (In a related story ten days earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that "the dash for missile defense profits is on.")

China has about 300 short-range missiles aimed at Taiwan. It is using them to pressure the island to reintegrate with the mainland. To protect itself, Taiwan wants the United States to sell it the Aegis radar system. This system could relay the coordinates of the incoming missiles to Taiwanese defenses that, at least in theory, could shoot them down. The U.S. Navy has recommended that Bush offer the Aegis to Taiwan. The Navy also wants Taiwan to get new submarines and a destroyer from Washington. China, which sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, would interpret the sale of these weapons as gross interference in its affairs.

But Republican hardliners don't care about that. Last year, House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, Republican of Texas, accused the Clinton Administration of "appeasement" on China. He said the United States should stand up to the "bullies" in Beijing and "make clear that threats to a free, democratic people will be met with the force required to deter and, if necessary, confront aggression," according to The Washington Post.

In February, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld defended Star Wars, especially in the context of China and Taiwan. "If some country decided it wanted to be aggressive to its neighbors and acquire additional territory by force, then having a missile defense system is not a bad idea," he said.

Rumsfeld is undertaking a full-scale review of the Pentagon's strategic planning, and, according to The Washington Post, that review has concluded that "the Pacific Ocean is the most likely theater of future major U.S. military operations, as China becomes more powerful and Russia less so."

For its part, China recognizes that the United States is a potential enemy. Its military budget is about $40 billion compared to the $310 billion budget of the United States, so it has a lot to fear, not the least being the thousands of nuclear weapons Washington has at its disposal.