Coping with uncertainty

UNESCO Courier, March, 1991 by Michel Batisse

THE many environmental problems with which our planet is faced stem from the capricious, unpredictable effects of "development", that is to say, the increasingly large-scale application of industrial, agricultural, medical and other techniques in economic and social life. Technology, the term we use to describe techniques in their totality, is today omnipresent, and upon it depends the functioning of the modern world. Technology is sometimes referred to as the daughter of science. Today, however, science and technology are closely intertwined in so many continuous lines of fundamental and applied research that it has become very difficult to distinguish disinterested research from research whose sole object is development.

Should we, then, blame science for being the source of those imperfect techniques that are degrading the human environment and squandering the natural resources of the biosphere? Some do not hesitate to make this criticism. They forget, however, that we cannot put the clock back. Some applications of science, especially in the fields of medicine and public health, have led to a rapid proliferation of the human species. Only through other applications, particularly in agriculture, has it been possible to feed these increased numbers. Nevertheless, we have every right to ask whether the science upon which our material civilization is based does not bear some responsibility for the way in which we handle the environment, through its fundamental approach rather than through its applications, and to try to find out how, and to what extent, it can help us to escape from the rut into which we have fallen.

Science as a conceptual attempt to understand the universe dates back to the ancient civilizations. The scientific method, which ensured the astounding progress of science, is a more recent development dating from the seventeenth century and emerging from the promptings of Bacon, Descartes and Galileo. Depending primarily on reasoned analysis, it attempts to break down seemingly complex phenomena into simpler, more easily measurable elements.

Based on a deterministic confidence in the order of nature, the analytical method rapidly met with dazzling success, particularly in the fields of mechanics, physics and chemistry. Its achievements gave rise to the notion of progress and opened the way to the great social changes of the Enlightenment in Europe and America. It led on triumphantly to the industrial revolution of the nineteenth century which is still going on today. There can be no question now of abandoning a tool that has been such an effective instrument in the advancement of knowledge and action.

The convergence of disciplines

The limitations of the analytical method become evident, however, when applied to phenomena of a higher degree of complexity where determinism no longer seems to operate and where the whole seems to be greater than the sum of its component parts. This is especially the case when the method is applied to questions concerning the life of living beings and of societies whose constituent elements react amongst themselves and with their environment. The striking successes being achieved in biology today are doubtless due to the fact that the scientific method has begun to go beyond its traditional, analytical and reductionist approach and to search for a convergence of disciplines in an attempt to achieve a better grasp of the complexity and unpredictability of living systems.

Environmental problems are by nature complex precisely because they involve human life and life in the biosphere. Because they are the incidental result of an excessively linear technology, they are linked together by a chain of multiple, often harmful interactions between factors that may not have been suspected. Because they are unforeseen and often menacing, they appear to demand urgent solutions. Although scientists have never been afraid to tackle difficult problems in fields they have chosen to explore, the environment suddenly faces them with extremely complex problems which are not of their choosing and which have to be handled with tools which are still basically imperfect. It is true that considerable methodological progress has been made in the study of complex phenomena and their evolution. Against the necessary interdisciplinary background two broad streams of scientific research have taken their place at the heart of environmental concerns: ecology-which involves the study of the totality of the interrelationships of human beings with one another and with their environment-and geography-which is today capable of tracing the links between the physical, biological, economic and social factors that clash and interact within a given territorial area.

Does this mean that science in its present state can provide the eagerly-awaited answers to environmental problems and in some way correct the errors engendered by its own applications? The answer is not so simple. Scientific research is not immune to the inertia of habit that affects all human behaviour. The interdisciplinary approach, which alone can enable real progress to be made in our understanding of complex systems, is still far from being accepted by the scientific community. This is because many scientists feel lost without their traditional landmarks and are afraid of being taken in by worthless research work in fields they have not fully mastered. The long-awaited marriage between the natural and the social sciences has either not come about or has led to conflict and as a result a great deal of technically unimpeachable scientific research is either not applied or leads to failure simply because it is not adapted to sociological and economic requirements. Under these circumstances, the persistent development of the classic disciplines, especially when there is a possibility that they will lead to applications in industry, is still the most reliable route for researchers to follow in order to obtain honours and funding. The very structure of research institutions favours isolation between disciplines rather than contact with the realities of the outside world.