Election Watch - Iowa Electronic Market election predictions compared with public opinion poll - Brief Article

Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, Oct, 2000 by Melynda Dovel Wilcox

As the noise level of the presidential campaign hits new highs, here's how to get a reality check on the ubiquitous opinion polls: Compare the poll numbers with current prices at the Iowa Electronic Market, a political futures market run by the University of Iowa Business School (www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem).

There, 6,200 investors are making real-money bets on who they think will next occupy the White House and win other key races. With nearly $150,000 on the line, they'll likely outperform the pollsters in calling the race.

PRESIDENTIAL RACE

              OPINION    IOWA
              POLL(*)   MARKET

George Bush     55%       52%
Al Gore         39%       48%

NY SENATE RACE

                  OPINION     IOWA
                  POLL(**)   MARKET

Hillary Clinton     46%        54%
Rick Lazio          43%        44%

(*) Gallup poll taken August 11-12.

(**) Quinnipiac University poll released August 9.