Swing vote? Young America's clout in choosing the next president

Black Enterprise, Oct, 2008 by Mashaun D. Simon, Brittany Hutson

YOUNG PEOPLE AGES 18 TO 29, KNOWN AS MILLENNIALS or Generation Y, are making their presence felt during this presidential election. Voters under 30 are expected to head to the polls in droves. "Youth participation this election year will be record breaking," says Alexandra Acker, executive director of the Young Democrats of America.

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These voters made up 21% of the electorate in the 2006 midterm elections, reports the research company CIRCLE, and they will stand nearly 45 million strong this election year. By 2015, they will make up one-third of the electorate. Independent political pollster John Zogby believes that about 25% of the votes in November will be cast by people under the age of 30. "So we're talking about a lot of young voters, with the edge going to the Democrats," he says.

The latest national youth survey conducted by Democracy Corps and the public opinion research firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows that young voters support Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) by a wider margin than they did Democrats in the 2006 elections (60% to 38%). The survey also shows Obama leading Sen. John McCain (R-Atiz.) 60% to 33% among voters under the age of 30.

The Democratic presidential nominee and his campaign for change are resonating with young voters, says Sia Nyorkor, 30, a New Jersey citizen journalist for MTV's Choose or Lose Street Team. "I found Independents that ended up registering as Democrats because they really identify with Barack Obama."

According to CIRCLE, following the 2006 midterm elections, 43% of young voters considered themselves Democrats; 31%, Republicans, and 26%, Independents. Political pundits believe that Obama will win over more Independents in November.

Jason A. Johnson, an assistant professor of political science and communications at Hiram College in Hiram, Ohio, says young people will have the upper hand in this year's election. "We are seeing a major enthusiasm gap," he says. "Obama voters are more excited about their candidate than McCain voters. And they are showing it through not just votes, but also participation."

Stephanie Young, media relations associate for Rock the Vote also believes that young Americans are in a position to choose the next president of the United States. "There is much more excitement around this election, because young voters are not happy with the direction this country is going," she says.

Voters under the age of 30 are making their concerns known through outlets such as social networking Websites, text messaging, videos, and political blogs. MySpace has a platform for young people to interact with the candidates, and YouTube streams candidate debates and speeches, with videos being posted by young adults voicing their opinions and concerns.

Technology is undoubtedly playing a greater role than it did in previous elections. The Pew Research Center in Washington, D.C., reports that during this election process 46% of Americans are using the Internet to get political news and to share their views about the campaign. During the 2004 election, 11.6 million voters between the ages of 18 and 24 went to the polls, an 11% increase from the turnout in 2000. "We expect even larger numbers this election because of the new technology we have," Young says. "We will have reminders everywhere--Facebook, MySpace, e-mails, cell phones--so this time young people won't have an excuse." The Rock the Vote campaign even initiated a mobile program to text updates and information about voter registration, deadlines, reminders, and political polls.

WHO ARE MILLENNIAL VOTERS?

Bankole Thompson, 29, senior editor of the Michigan Chronicle, describes millennials as a "diverse group of people who are often not considered to be meaningful contributors to society--college educated, non-college educated, and hip-hoppers." This group has been vastly underestimated in past elections, says Thompson, who is covering the election and made appearances on CNN and the Tom Joyner Morning Show.

CIRCLE reports that 39% of voters 18 to 29 are nonwhite, with young Latinos making up the largest percentage of this population. Latinos are generally a younger demographic (the average age is 25), says Andres Ramirez, vice president of Hispanic Programs for NDN, a progressive think tank and advocacy organization based in Washington, D.C.

According to NDN, of the Latino voters in this year's presidential primaries and caucuses, 78% voted Democratic and 22% voted Republican. The total number of Latinos voting in the primaries more than tripled from 2004 to 2008, passing the 3 million mark.

Polls show that young African Americans tend to vote at higher rates than any other ethnic group. About 50% of African Americans age 29 and younger voted in 2004, compared with 33% of Latinos, and 32% of Asians. In comparison to other minorities, young African American voters are more likely to vote regularly, donate money to candidates, and display campaign buttons or signs, according to Rock The Vote, which estimates that more than 6 million African Americans age 29 and under will be eligible to vote this year.