where will technology take us in the 21st century? - forecast

Black Enterprise, March, 2001 by Jason P. Mckay

A look at five innovations that are changing the way we work, communicate, and live

THE ROAD TO THE 21ST CENTURY HAS BROUGHT MANY CHANGES in the way we work, conduct our private lives, and do business. And the Internet is at the center of it all. That claim isn't meant to steal any thunder from other advances, but the Internet has changed not only how we communicate but also when, where, and how often.

Other technologies are also heralding a new era. Distance is virtually eliminated with high-speed digital connections; electronic commerce is helping small businesses compete with large corporations worldwide. Wireless devices are no longer luxuries but necessities in a fast-moving marketplace. And biology is slowly but seamlessly meshing with technology. Computing systems that once occupied entire rooms now fit in the palms of our hands.

With so many changes occurring, it's easy to get overwhelmed. To help you keep pace, we've looked at five technologies that are driving change in business and in everyday life.

BROADBAND

Many of today's homes are crawling along, whether they know it or not, in what will be deemed the dark ages once broadband technologies--cable and DSL--get up to speed. Currently, 56Kbps is the fastest modem speed available, although the actual transmission rate tops off at about 52Kbps (or lower, depending on your ISP).

Most homes and smaller businesses with Web access use dial-up because it is the cheapest and most widely available, but DSL and cable providers are making inroads. Broadband, according to the Federal Communications Commission, is capable of supporting both downstream and upstream connections at speeds in excess of 7Mbps; that's about four times faster than dial-up. Many small to medium-size businesses already have broadband access, as do consumers who want instant-on access, faster surfing, or a better gaming experience.

And as products and delivery mechanisms evolve, the capabilities broadband will bring to the average household will be astounding. The holy trinity of communications--voice, video, and data--will all be provided over one connection, from one provider. While these services are being delivered today in areas like Phoenix, Arizona, by cable provider Cox Communications and Qwest Communications, most consumers can expect a widespread rollout--and greater speed--within the next five years. (For more on broadband access, see "The Promised Bandwidth," Techwatch, December 2000.)

Phone companies, cable operators, and broadband service providers like Santa Clara, California-based Covad Communications are working to speed connectivity. With DSL, for instance, some companies are rolling out delivery of voice, as well as video channels, digital, commercial-flee audio stations, and high-speed Internet access--all over one line, with all services operating simultaneously.

As broadband hurtles forward, the networked home of the future will resemble those that we know from sci-fi movies or cartoons like The Jetsons.

A WIRELESS WORLD

Wireless devices such as mobile phones and pagers keep us connected with work as well as with family and friends. And a new generation of wireless networks promises to deliver data to handsets at up to 2 million bits per second--more than 100 times what's possible today. At these speeds, service providers like Verizon Wireless, Cingular, AT&T Wireless, and Sprint PCS say that even video will soon be delivered to handsets.

Imagine using a phone not only for getting information from the Internet but also for multimedia games, presentations, and even videoconferencing. The first networks able to offer these services are expected in Europe and Asia by 2002; we can expect deployments by 2003. Why the wait? According to Philip Kendall, mobile communications analyst at Boston-based Strategy Analytics, there are two key reasons. First, the U.S. lags behind most European and Asian countries both in technology and in penetration of the subscriber base. Second, the technology will cost each operator billions of dollars to deploy.

But with rollout expected around 2003, wireless providers will know the exact location of their subscribers. This will allow restaurants, shops, and other retailers to send ads to wireless handsets, enticing users into their stores as they pass. Hungry? A nearby restaurant is offering 10% off dinner via the electronic coupon it just sent to your cell phone.

Mobile handsets will have to evolve even further, of course, combining phone capabilities with elements of personal digital assistants. One example of where the technology is headed is Handspring's Springboard modules for the Visor. The Visor features an expansion slot to add a variety of modules such as a digital camera or the company's VisorPhone, which instantly turns your handheld into a mobile phone.

Handsets like Ericcson's R380 (which comes with a foldout keypad) are already being equipped with larger screens, voice recognition, and greater processing power. And soon handsets will also talk to each other using Bluetooth, a short-range wireless networking technology, says Mark Lowenstein, chief industry strategist at Informico, a wireless Internet infrastructure company based in Lexington, Massachusetts.