Racing toward the finish line: African American Democrats and Republicans eye the November races

Black Enterprise, Nov, 1996 by Joyce Jones

Deciding before an election, who is a shoo-in and who may be on the way out is a risky proposition. But several political analysts interviewed by BE point to a handful of African Americans across the country, Democrats and Republicans, who are poised to make a splash in November.

Among them is Danny K. Davis, who hopes to be a member of the 105th Congress when it convenes next January. A Cook County commissioner from the Seventh District in Chicago, Davis won the Democratic nomination in a race of 10 candidates vying for the seat vacated by retiring Congressional Black Caucus member Cardiss Collins. In a majority black district with a Democratic voting turnout of 78.4%, he is one of the few surefire bets to win this fall.

Citing Davis' significant experience in local Chicago politics, "he's all but anointed," declares political analyst David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

Harold Ford Sr., who has represented the Ninth District of Tennessee for 22 years, announced he would retire this year. But the Ford name will likely carry on in his absence. His son, Harold Ford Jr., a recent law school graduate, will undoubtedly continue to represent this heavily Democratic district. At 26 years of age, opponents assailed his youth and inexperience, but Ford Jr. handily won the Democratic primary for his father's seat.

"You don't send people to Washington who can't deliver. You send someone who knows the system and the process, who can deliver for the district," says Ford, who has worked hard for the Senate Budget Committee, the Clinton campaign and the Clinton/Gore transition team, served a Democratic National Committee internship with the late Ron Brown and eventually worked as a special assistant to Brown at the Department of Commerce.

Black Republican candidates are making some noise as well. Keep an eye on Joe Rogers, who hopes to win the open seat in Colorado vacated by retiring Democrat Pat Schroeder. "He is probably the most attractive of the new black [Republican] candidates," says Bositis. Rogers is pro-choice and a supporter of affirmative action. As a result, his support appears to transcend party lines. Despite his moderate stands, Rogers says he joined the Republican party three years ago because "blacks lost every ounce of political power by putting our eggs in one basket. We need to be every where.

According to Craig G. Veith, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), these and other challengers have a decent chance at beating their Democratic opponents if they aggressively communicate a positive message to their voters. Initially, both the NRCC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) provide candidates with support in areas like campaign strategy and research. Closer to the general election, the most viable candidates can receive up to $65,000 for such expenditures as advertising, polling and get-out-the-vote initiatives.

Rogers and Rod DeBerry, a black Republican challenging Ford, have earned NRCC support, but the others are "mostly sacrificial lambs'" says Bositis. "Black incumbents don't get unseated by unknown and underfinanced challengers." But on the flip side, incumbent CBC member Barbara-Rose Collins (D-Michigan) has learned this is not always true. In an August primary race for her seat, Collins lost to fellow Democrat and Michigan state representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, who now looks forward to the November elections. So the lesson here is that nothing's a sure bet until November has come and gone.