The corporate library and issues management - The Library in Corporate Intelligence Activities

It is clear that databases readily accessible online can be used to track the diffusion of ideas and to identify those in which interest is growing as exemplified by: (1) a great increase in the number of references, (2) a substantial increase in the number of databases in which the idea occurs, or (3) the movement of the idea from a limited-audience literature to a wide-audience literature.

The use of databases in this way is illustrated in the hypothetical example shown in Table 1. The idea, as represented by a particular term, occurs for the first time in database A, a pure science database, at time x. By the time x + 1 (which could be, say, six months later), not too much has occurred: database A records three further occurrences of the term between x and x + 1, and the term has moved into a second science database, D, with a single occurrence. At x + 2, activity is increasing: the topic is diffusing into additional databases, the number of occurrences is increasing, and the topic is recognized for the first time in an applied science database. Interest in the topic continues to grow in the period x + 3 to x + 5: it is covered in more science databases and more applied science databases, with increasing numbers of occurrences in each, reaches the general public (databases covering newspapers and popular magazines), and has even become a governmental concern (e.g., reached Congressional testimony). Table 1 Diffusion of an Idea Through Databases (Numbers in Cells Represent Frequency with Which a Term Occurs in the Database)

Passage of time Databases by type x x+1 x+2

x+3 x+4 x+5 Pure science A 1 3 12 35 84

157 B 2 12 38 49 C

3 9 23 38 D 1

6 17 31 41 E 4 18 29 Applied science F 1 4 7 18 G

2 12 22 H

1 5 11 Popular I

1 8 22 J

1 5 17 K Governmental L

2 M

7

If one had plotted the diffusion of this hypothetical idea through databases accessible online, one might identify it as a potentially important issue at different points in time, depending on what indicator of concern/interest was adopted. At x + 5, it is of obvious concern because it is already being discussed in hearings before Congressional committees--perhaps with a view to some form of legislation or regulatory action. Presumably, all organizations will have recognized the significance of the issue by then. However, one can argue that the potential importance of the issue could have been recognized by x + 2 as it spread into more science databases (especially if a number of different sciences are involved) and had reached the applied science literature (e.g., an article describing a possible solution or a possible application), and certainly by x + 3, at which time it had passed beyond the more scholarly literature and reached the popular press.