The shape of things to come - technology trends, services and products that are about to appear - Technology Information

Home Office Computing, Nov, 1997 by Philip Albinus

Keep Ahead of the Technology Curve With this Special Report on Trends, Products, and Services That Are Just Around the Bend

Even as you read this, manufacturers are putting the final touches on new technology that will radically change the way we work. Wouldn't it be great if you could prepare your business before these products hit the shelves?

To help you guide your purchasing and get a jump on the competition, our tech editors have put together this preview of what's ahead, based on numerous trips to trade shows, advance product demos, and interviews with leading industry experts.

What can you expect to see in the coming year? Hardware that's getting skinnier--and fatter. Computers that are getting smarter--and dumber. These are two of the five contradictory trends we uncovered, proving that for every action there's an opposite reaction. Happily, our favorite paradox continues to hold true: Each year, technology is becoming more powerful--and less expensive (see "Your $3,000 PC").

Some of the products mentioned here are already available. They're noteworthy because they're indicative of the direction in which similar items are heading. Also keep in mind that where there's a buzz, there's often a bite, so for each category we point out potential snags in the earliest versions.

HARDWARE GETS SKINNIER

Slim is in. But far from trimming features, manufacturers putting their products on a digital diet are squeezing more functionality into smaller devices, increasing their portability and freeing up valuable desktop real estate in the process.

THE BUZZ. Computers and monitors continue to get lighter and smaller. Personal digital assistants (PDAs)--the handheld, battery-powered units that use either their own operating system or Windows CE (a bare-bones version of Windows 95)--have already wowed the wired generation with their capabilities of managing phone numbers, appointments, and accessing e-mail. Now, enter the Libretto (pictured on the previous page and reviewed in this issue's New & Noteworthy).

Toshiba's $2,000 mini-notebook weighs just 1.85 pounds but offers a 75MHz Pentium processor, 16MB of RAM, a 772MB hard disk, a 6.1-inch active-matrix color screen, and a full version of Windows 95. Expect other vendors next year to release their versions of this content-rich, paperback-size unit that's already a hot seller in Japan.

The current breed of handheld PCs, such as the Philips Velo, weighs even less and we expect to see more software and hardware peripherals available for them--especially those using the Windows CE operating system. And say goodbye to the monochrome mini-displays. Leading PDA manufacturer NEC is perfecting a color liquid crystal display (LCD) for its MultiSync LCD 2000 that should hit the United States market by year's end.

Notebooks also are stripping down. Computer industry analyst Tim Bajarin expects a narrower, more task-specific notebook with fewer features and a lower sticker price to debut next year. "We're going to see a lightweight portable designed for e-mail and writing memos, a lot like the Libretto," says Bajarin, president of Creative Strategies.

Another peripheral on the Slim-Fast plan is the desktop monitor, as witnessed by flat-panel desktop displays that recently hit the market. First seen in 19505 science-fiction films, wafer-thin monitors finally are becoming a reality. Their appeal? They offer crisp, clear images and free up your desktop for other items. ViewSonic recently introduced its VPA145 ViewPanel, an LCD panel with built-in speakers and a twist: The monitor can display in portrait or landscape mode to show a single page or two pages side-by-side.

THE BITE. Weight loss comes at a price. Because LCD technology is costly to manufacture, flat-panel displays currently range from $1,500 to $3,500. For example, the PanoView 745 from CTX International, a 14.5-inch LCD panel that delivers resolutions of 1,024 by 768, has a list price of $2,795. We anticipate that these high prices will make flat-panel displays slow to catch on, especially when standard 17-inch monitor prices are expected to take a dive to $500 by early next year, with prices for 19- and 21-inch monitors likely dropping in their wake. As for the Libretto and other tiny notebooks with awkward-to-use Chiclet-size keys, it might be worth waiting until they have all the features of a full-size portable. "Why spend $2,000 for a notebook without a floppy drive or functioning keypad when you can get a full-fledged notebook for just $500 more?" asks Bajarin.

HARDWARE GETS FATTER

Although some PCs are shrinking, others continue to pack on the pounds as more features are added.

THE BUZZ. A far superior desktop computer looms on the horizon that will quickly retire your current 166MHz Pentium with its 24MB of RAM. Next year, the standard desktop will boast basics of 64MB of RAM, an 8GB hard disk, new Pentium II chips at twice the current clock speeds, and a 19-inch monitor. Notebooks too will continue to pack in more. "By 2000, notebooks will have 13-, 14-, and maybe even 15-inch active-matrix screens and multigigabyte hard disks," says Rick Griencewic, product marketing manager for Gateway 2000.