Try, beloved country: rumors of South Africa's decline are greatly exaggerated

Reason, August-Sept, 2004 by John Blundell

What's really needed are the sort of popular Thatcherite measures that will bypass the tiny in-crowd and truly empower the tens of millions of poor people. After Britain's 1980 reforms, the number of people owning shares catapulted from 6 percent to 30 percent; South Africa, too, needs to open up ownership to the masses. The Law Review Project's Louw is very clear: "The fundamentals are in place. Apart from thousands of new statutes we call 'petty' regulation, the rhetoric is right and so is the policy. We have a good constitution that protects the people, and we have a surprisingly good Constitutional Court that upholds the rule of law. Other than the nationalization of mineral rights, capitalism is rampant and socialism completely defeated."

His colleague Eustace Davie added: "while we are subject to crime, we are all freer from government. After 20 years of no growth, and even negative growth prior to 1994, we are now going up." The annual growth rate in South Africa is estimated at 3 percent.

In the end I went with my eyes, and my training as an economist, in judging South Africa's prospects. Yes, there is crime, unemployment, and AIDS. But from my perspective on the street, in the heart of it, I don't believe the problems are as big as the reports make them out to be, or as insurmountable as the naysayers would have them seem. With a black majority that is stunning in its patience, understanding, and willingness to find a way, South Africa will not only survive but thrive.

John Blundell (jblundell@iea.org.uk) is director general of the Institute of Economic Affairs in London.