The Muslim numbers game is subject to fuzzy math

0 Comments | Insight on the News, April 29, 2002 | by Hans S. Nichols

As the debate continues over the precise number of Muslims residing legally or illegally in the United States, other Western countries are attempting the same thing. Germany has a better idea than many of its neighboring countries, but that hasn't satisfied some members of the Bundestag. Given the al-Qaeda cells in Hamburg and elsewhere in Germany, the Muslim population there is an issue of concern for law-enforcement officials and, of late, German politicians.

In the United States, the most commonly cited population figure for resident Muslims is 6 million to 7 million. But this number is dubious, notes Howard Fienberg, a senior analyst with the Statistical Assessment Service. "Because the U.S. government may not collect religious data, reliable estimates are hard to find," Fienberg tells INSIGHT. He also cautions about crediting such data from other countries.

Statistical murkiness causes credible guesstimates of Muslims in the United States to vary from 1 million to 7 million, though Fienberg thinks the number is close to 2 million. A researcher for the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago guesstimates 1.5 million to 3.4 million.

German census officials recently estimated the number of Muslims there at 2.8 million to 3.2 million after being pressed by heated questions from politicians. To quell these concerns, census bureaucrats also produced a 90-page document that provides detailed information about related topics ranging from circumcision of girls and the number of Islamic day-care centers to membership of Turkish youths in German sports clubs. It also estimates that there are more than 1,100 Muslims in the German armed forces.

Demographers here are far away from producing similar data for the United States. Says a Census Bureau official: "We just don't ask those kinds of questions."

HANS S. NICHOLS IS A REPORTER FOR Insight.