Hammerin' away at history: Barry Bonds. Sammy Sosa. During the next few seasons, these two sluggers will be baseball's main attraction as they chase after the game's holy grail: 756 career home runs

Insight on the News, May 6, 2002 by Mark Zuckerman

There are plenty of great players in baseball today, including Alex Rodriguez, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Ichiro Suzuki, Ken Griffey Jr., Derek Jeter. But here's a little secret: They don't matter, at least not these days. That's because none of them has done what Bobby Bonds and Sammy Sosa have: hit home runs at a rate so staggering that they are legitimate threats to break sport's most hallowed record.

Yes, that record. The one owned by a certain Henry Louis Aaron -- 755 career home runs. Since "Hammerin' Hank" clubbed his way past Babe Ruth some 28 years ago, many players have been touted as the next all-time home-run king, only to fall off pace or to succumb to injury. Bonds (572 home runs as of April 8) and Sosa (453) really do have a chance to achieve that title, however, and none other than Aaron himself says so.

While filming a commercial together this winter (in which Aaron uses a Field of Dreams voice to try to convince Bonds to retire), the home-run champ actually told the San Francisco Giants star he wants him to break the record. "He said, 'I've had the record long enough. Records are meant to be broken, so if you have a chance to do it, then do it,'" Bonds recalls. "I didn't know what to say. I was shocked."

One year ago, Bonds' name never would have been uttered in the same breath as Aaron's. A certain Hall of Famer and one of the best all-around players in baseball history, Bonds still wasn't considered a great home-run hitter (he never had hit 50 in a single season, although neither did Aaron in his 23-year career).

Then Bonds went out and walloped 73 homers, breaking Mark McGwire's three-year-old single-season record and thrusting himself into the race for 756. In seventh place on the all-time home-run list, and at age 37, he may only have a few more big years left. To reach Aaron, he must average 37.8 homers for five years or 47.3 homers for four years.

A daunting task? Perhaps. Within the realm of possibility? Absolutely. In its annual player projections, Stats Inc. states that Bonds has an 82 percent chance to reach 700 home runs and a 43 percent chance to get to 756.

Bonds, however, is not looking that far ahead, at least not publicly. "First, I have to get through this year," he says. "I'm nervous about this year, to be honest, because of the expectations of the media, the people. It's nerve-racking because you're trying to figure out how to do it again. I've got to put it in the back of my head and forget about it."

Giants manager Dusty Baker isn't about to let talk of 756 pervade his clubhouse. "Leave him alone," Baker said this spring. "They were talking about Bob Horner breaking the career record and he disappeared. Then they talked about Ken Griffey Jr. breaking the career record, and then he got hurt a couple of years, and you haven't heard that one lately. Then Mark McGwire. He got hurt and you don't hear about it anymore."

Baker has a point. There have been several brief threats to Aaron's record during the last 20 years, but no one has even cracked the 600-homer plateau, let alone come close to reaching 755. In most cases, the challenger has not been able to sustain his pace in the final years of his career.

For that reason, many think Sosa is more likely to reach Aaron than Bonds. Four years younger than his San Francisco counterpart, Sosa has far more baseball left in him. He has a love for the game matched by few. And maybe most importantly, he has proved he can sustain a torrid pace, averaging an astounding 60.75 homers during the last four seasons. Indeed, Stats Inc. says Sosa, not Bonds, has the best chance to catch Aaron -- a 47 percent chance of reaching 756. "If I continue and maintain every year and be consistent, anything can happen," says Sosa, who plays for the Chicago Cubs.

Only four years ago, Sosa was a wild-swinging, oft-misunderstood ballplayer. He did hit 40 homers in 1996, but his batting average typically hung around .260, his strikeout total topped 170 and he seemingly never hit the ball to right field.

"I knew Sosa would hit a lot of home runs; he was just a wild swinger," says Syd Thrift, the Cubs' assistant general manager from 1991 to 1994. "The more he played, the more disciplined he got at home plate. Once he started hitting the ball to right field, he became a great player."

Sosa gained national fame in 1998 when he battled McGwire down to the wire for Roger Maris' single-season home-run record. He finished with 66 home runs, the second-highest total ever at that time, but four behind McGwire. Since then, he's surpassed the 60-homer plateau twice more -- amazingly, finishing second in the National League both times -- and has amassed a .310 batting average during his spectacular four-year run. To get to 756, the 33-year-old Sosa would need to average 38.3 homers for eight years, 43.7 homers for seven years or 51 homers for six years.

"He's come a long way," says former Cubs teammate Mark Grace, now with the Arizona Diamondbacks. "He's probably the most dominating hitter in the game right now. He's always been kind of a streaky guy, hot and cold streaks. But now, his hot streaks are far outlasting his cold streaks. He's throwing up .300, .320 [batting averages] with all these home runs. That's very impressive."