Numbers Don't Jibe in Bill's Crime Stats

0 Comments | Insight on the News, Jan 1, 2001 | by John Elvin

Wrong on three counts is the verdict of the Statistical Assessment Service (SAS) in analyzing a radio address by President Clinton in October on the subject of domestic violence. Clinton said that, "In America today, domestic violence is the No. 1 health risk for women between the ages of 15 and 44. ... Every 12 seconds, another woman is beaten. That's nearly 900,000 victims a year."

While allowing that domestic violence is indeed a serious subject, SAS points out that the White House had retracted similar claims made by Clinton in 1995 because they were "fraudulent figures." If the "every 12 seconds" figure were accurate, the end result would be more than 2.5 million victims, rather than 900,000, the analysts note. Further, the total of all violent crimes recorded by the FBI in 1999 was 1,430,693 -- or about one every 22 seconds, so the "every 12 seconds" claim falls on its face there, too.

SAS goes on to trace the history of Clinton's figures, finding that they were concocted by those whose interests are served by including not only pushing, shoving or grabbing as acts of violence but also simple hostile behaviors such as "stomping off." The analysts go on to show that the 900,000 figure dates to 1995 and, at that time, it indicated a substantial decline in domestic violence figures from the early 1990s. The latest figures for violent crime against women by intimates show an additional 30 percent drop since 1995.

That's not all. The statement that domestic violence is the No. 1 health risk for young women is based on "an extremely small study of one emergency room" and has been rejected by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

SAS is described as a nonpartisan, nonprofit research organization "dedicated to improving public understanding of scientific and statistical information."