Pro-life stance paid off for GOP: though not touted as a hot-button topic in the 2002 midterm elections, the abortion issue appears to have played a key role in shifting control in the Senate

0 Comments | Insight on the News, Dec 24, 2002 | by Jennifer G. Hickey

* The Child Custody Protection Act (HR 476), which criminalizes the action of taking a minor across state lines for an abortion if it abridges her parents' right to be involved under their home-state law. It was passed by the House 260-161 on April 17.

* The Abortion Non-Discrimination Act (HR 4691), which prohibits state and local governments from discriminating against hospitals and other health-care providers for refusing to participate in abortions, was passed by the House on Sept. 25 by a vote of 229-189.

As favorable as the landscape may be for pro-life advocates, they are well aware of the realities of moving legislation through a marginally divided Senate. "We do have to get over high hurdles, such as drawing 60 votes for bills. But [passage of NRLC-supported bills] still is going to depend on the issue," says Johnson, who thinks some normally pro-choice senators may support measures, such as the unborn victims' bill, which may not be viewed by all pro-choice legislators as challenges to Roe v. Wade.

Neither Johnson nor Michelman would speculate on which measures could or will pass. Speaking to the array of initiatives which could find their way onto the legislative agenda in the 108th Congress, Zogby maintains the landscape may favor Republicans but that it also is fraught with potentially dangerous pitfalls.

"It was a victory, but hardly a mandate. Republicans have a wider majority now in the House, but it is still razor-thin in the Senate. Clearly something dramatic can backfire and reignite the choice movement. What I do know is that what Lott and [House Majority Whip] Delay [of Texas] are going to want to do is play up their strength and build up their numbers for 2004 and consolidate support in both houses and then look for a mandate," Zogby suggests.

The pro-life movement also made significant gains on the state level, particularly in Minnesota where pro-life Republican Tim Pawlenty won the governorship and will be working with pro-life majorities in both houses of the Legislature. Following the election, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported that lawmakers plan to introduce a bill requiring women seeking an abortion to give informed consent at least 24 hours before the procedure. Two similar bills were vetoed by Gov. Jesse Ventura.

While hesitant to predict whether the abortion issue will be more salient in 2004, Michelman believes that the mere loss of the Senate by pro-choice Democrats will "energize those who sit at the base of the progressive social strata of our country and are committed to protecting our rights. They, including Republicans, are appalled with what happened and about what potentially could happen" on the state and federal levels. She notes that since 1995, approximately 300 laws to restrict abortion have been signed into law.

Debates about the level of funding for abstinence education, as well as international family-planning programs, will be revisited during the annual appropriations process, but there is potential for abortion to be a major issue in 2004. Noting the impact of the murder of Buffalo, N.Y., obstetrician Barnett Slepian weeks before the 1998 congressional elections--or the current maelstrom concerning Planned Parenthood's "Choice on Earth" Christmas cards--Zogby says independent voters may be swayed either way in 2004.