Will Old Formula Beat the Bushes? Democrats used a struggling economy and a large field of candidates to knock George H.W. Bush out of office in 1992. Will the same strategy work against his son?

Insight on the News, August 19, 2003 by Adam Heieck

It is not lost on the Democrats that Bush has made a strong effort to attract Hispanic voters, and polls show 40 percent of Hispanics now favor the Republican incumbent. The president drew 35 percent of that vote in 2000, whereas his father received only 25 percent in 1992, probably costing him the states of California and New York. Republicans hope the current president's ability to relate to Hispanics, combined with the unpopularity of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in California, where Hispanics constitute 30 percent of the population, may swing the Golden State to Republicans for the first time in more than a decade. But according to California Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres, "People are still shopping for a [Democratic] candidate ... but the recall [of Davis] could actually help the strength of the party because overcoming struggle creates movement to energize the electorate." And, Torres insists, "When it comes to voting, Latinos will come back to the Democratic Party."

While Democrats are well-aware that the differences in the Hispanic vote for the two Bush campaigns favor Republicans, Insight still hears them saying that they will prevent a second term for the younger Bush just as they did for his father. And all this despite those high approval ratings and mutual Bush successes with national security. "What they are missing," says GOP political consultant Craig Shirley, "is that this president has a personal relationship with the American people, and they with him, that is based on coming through in a time of crisis."

Adam Heieck is a summer reporter for Insight.