Tough-to-Stomach Prospects

0 Comments | Insight on the News, August 19, 2003 | by Jennifer G. Hickey

Byline: Jennifer G. Hickey, INSIGHT

With momentum growing behind the candidacy of former Vermont governor Howard Dean, it seems more than a joke that when the Democratic National Convention opens its doors in Boston a year from now, Beantown may be better known as Deantown. This prospect is causing more indigestion among Democrats than, well, a Boston beanery.

Commenting on the findings of a poll conducted June 29 through July 1 by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, Bill Clinton's former pollster Mark Penn warned his party that "exciting the Democratic base alone will not bring enough voters into the Democratic fold" to defeat President George W. Bush. However, while the president enjoys a 64 percent job-approval rating in Penn's survey, only 48 percent of likely voters polled in the moderate Democratic Leadership Council survey said they would vote to re-elect him below the benchmark of 50 percent.

Whatever the prospects, wrestling over the direction of the Democratic Party is likely to heat up to the delight of Republicans and the Bush administration. The decision by Democratic Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts, Bob Graham of Florida and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut to shift to offense underscores the gains Dean has made in recent months and the losses his nomination could incur 16 months from now.

As centrist Democrats split their time between attacking Dean and Bush, the president should be mindful of certain discomforts being voiced by those within his own party's ranks. Conservatives bristled when the administration backed the imposition of steel tariffs in the hopes of earning political credit in battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. They shifted uncomfortably in their chairs at Bush's tortured acceptance of the Supreme Court decision on affirmative action. But moves in recent weeks to defend Clinton policies concerning designation of private land as national monuments, and Bush's entreaty to congressional Republicans to support an extension of the child tax credit to individuals who do not pay taxes, raise questions of whether politics or principle steers the ship of GOP statements.

Christine Iverson, Republican National Committee (RNC) spokeswoman, says Bush remains extraordinarily popular within the party ranks despite criticism from conservative editorialists, commentators and some congressmen. "There was a high level of satisfaction and energy among delegates. For the most part, they are extremely upbeat about the president's agenda," Iverson declared of participants at the RNC's July 24-26 summer meeting.

This appears to be confirmed by a July 23-24 survey conducted by GOP pollster David Winston, president of the Virginia-based Winston Group. Among conservatives, including 29 percent of those respondents identifying themselves as Democrats, Bush enjoys an 80 percent approval rating (versus only 15 percent who disapprove). And among conservative Republicans the approval ratio is a stellar 96-2.

Addressing concern about less-than-conservative positions adopted by the administration, Winston points to a focus group of conservatives conducted in Kentucky shortly after passage of the No Child Left Behind Act. Not warmly embraced by conservatives who felt some components of the act bore the fingerprints of Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), Winston says support for Bush remained strong because that group recognized "there are certain situations where the dynamic compelled a degree of compromise."

The focus group acknowledged that "to provide solutions [the president] is going to have to compromise, and while that will not always be the ideal, ultimately he is responsible for producing results." Additionally, the focus group remained convinced that Bush had their best interests at heart. "The promise he made was pretty emphatic. Once he broke that promise, considering how emphatically it was made, it became difficult to come back," says Winston of the conservative backlash against George H.W. Bush. Unlike his father, he adds, George W. Bush has done a better job explaining "what he did and, more importantly, why."

Explaining his domestic priorities to the American people yet again is high on the Bush administration agenda as officials fan out across the country to highlight their economic proposals, many of which have earned the loyalty of conservatives. But as the administration presses Congress to come to an agreement on the divergent Medicare bills passed in the House and Senate, a lot more explanation is needed.

Democrats believe they sense a weakness, according to a July 23 memo to party faithful issued by Democracy Corps, the consulting firm of James Carville, Bob Shrum and pollster Stan Greenberg. These former Clinton strategists note the biggest change in their polling was on the question of the budget and deficits. Based on results from a July 15-20 survey of 1,014 likely voters, the strategists write, "older voters do not trust the Republicans" on Medicare, and "other polls over the last six months show sharply rising concern with Social Security's future, likely linked to growing recognition of the deficit problem."