Bush Can't Depend on Democratic Disarray

0 Comments | Insight on the News, Oct 14, 2003 | by Jamie Dettmer

Byline: Jamie Dettmer, INSIGHT

Not deterred by the lack of interest in her presidential bid so far, Carol Moseley-Braun, the only black woman to serve in the U.S. Senate, in late September formally announced her candidacy for the Democratic nomination for president. Of all the Democratic runners with the possible exception of Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio Moseley-Braun's bid is worth the loudest snort.

A "long-shot candidacy" is how some commentators have described her bid, but that would appear to err on the side of extreme kindness. Back in 1992, Moseley-Braun indeed appeared to be a rising star when she unseated an incumbent Democratic senator, the two-term lawmaker Alan Dixon, in the Illinois primary. But she didn't fulfill her promise when she reached the Senate; indeed, quite the reverse. Her buddying up to Nigeria's former dictator Sani Abacha and allegations about the misuse of campaign funds suggested that Moseley-Braun had poor judgment at the very best.

Her candidacy hardly is the stuff that will have the White House quaking. In fact, for all the current torrent of articles predicting a difficult re-election campaign for George W. Bush there is little in the Democratic field that should worry the president or his advisers. Howard Dean, the media favorite, is peaking far too early and doesn't have the Democratic establishment behind him. His insurgent campaign may go down well with activists during the primary season, but he is not going to be well-positioned for a general-election campaign.

Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the strongest candidate on paper, remains a wooden campaigner. Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri isn't even exciting organized labor, his natural constituency. And Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut has all the marks of a retread. Gen. Wesley Clark, who jumped into the presidential race late, may have pulled ahead of the Democratic field and tied Bush in polls taken in the full flush of a media orgasm, but he is politically untested, given to gaffes and has offered no comprehensive political agenda. As with previous newcomers to politics who have been tempted into a national run, Clark is likely to find that the first few weeks of a bid are the easiest that is, before the media and political rivals start bearing down.

But it would be a mistake for the Bush camp to believe the 2004 election will be a slam dunk. True, the Democrats are in disarray and are so far offering no one of any real stature to take the fight to the president. But what if they did come up with "someone"?

Before suggesting that likely "someone," it is worth scrutinizing the difficulties Bush will face when he goes to voters and asks for their backing. Of course, he has advantages he steadied the nation in its hour of grief and fear, took the fight to Afghanistan and Iraq and vanquished enemies in two wars.

But neither the peace in Afghanistan nor Iraq has been won. Both could throw up major political hazards for Bush in the weeks and months to come. And as pollster John Zogby has polemicized in recent days, Bush might be made to appear a wounded president. His overall approval rating in several polls has fallen sharply in the last few months. Recent polls have given the Democrats much to talk about. As one Democratic senator said: "They show the president is beatable."

For Bush supporters the gloom-and-doom talk is so much Democratic chatter talking points that can be dismissed merrily as partisan. Likewise, media speculation about the tough time ahead for Bush also is seen as biased. There is plenty of time for Bush to shore up his backing in the country ahead of the 2004 polls, senior Republicans argue. And they also highlight the huge cache of campaign monies the president will have on hand, as well as the electoral magic of the trusty Karl Rove, the adviser who engineered a historically successful midterm congressional election for Bush and the Republicans.

All that is true, but Bush's biggest problem remains the economy. Since he came to power nearly 3 million Americans have lost their jobs, and much of Middle America is suffering greatly as the slump continues. Americans have seen their 401(k)s wiped out and their savings cut into dramatically, and even those at work fear for their futures. Homeowners worry about a possible real-estate bubble.

The economic hurt many are going through could lay the groundwork for a serious challenge to Bush, fear some Republican lawmakers, who say the administration needs to get out ahead of the issue forcefully. As they point out, polls increasingly show that the economy is the No. 1 concern of Americans. Traditionally, presidents seeking re-election fare badly when economic times are bad.

Back in the midterm elections, of course, the Democrats hoped that the troubled economy would assist them. It didn't. National-security issues trumped economic ones and Bush was rewarded for his steadiness in the face of terrorism. The squabbling Democrats also were unable to craft a campaign message.